Risks To Shareholder Returns Are Elevated At These Prices For Morinaga&Co., Ltd. (TSE:2201)

It's not a stretch to say that Morinaga&Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:2201) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 16x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Japan, where the median P/E ratio is around 15x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

Morinaga&Co could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Morinaga&Co

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Morinaga&Co will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Is There Some Growth For Morinaga&Co?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Morinaga&Co would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 33% decrease to the company's bottom line. Even so, admirably EPS has lifted 73% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 8.0% per year during the coming three years according to the four analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's curious that Morinaga&Co's P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Morinaga&Co's P/E?

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

Our examination of Morinaga&Co's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You always need to take note of risks, for example - Morinaga&Co has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

You might be able to find a better investment than Morinaga&Co. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.