How Inpex’s Increased Buyback and Upgraded Guidance (TSE:1605) Has Changed Its Investment Story

• On November 13, 2025, Inpex Corporation held a board meeting where it approved an increase in its share buyback authorization to ¥100 billion and raised its full-year earnings guidance, reflecting strong operational results and favorable market assumptions.
• This combination of enhanced shareholder returns through a larger buyback plan and improved profit outlook highlights management's confidence in the company's operational performance and its ambition to return value to shareholders.
• We'll explore how Inpex's upgraded earnings guidance, driven by reliable project execution, impacts its overall investment narrative and outlook.

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Inpex Investment Narrative Recap

To be an Inpex shareholder today, you need to believe that global LNG and energy demand will remain resilient, supporting the company's major expansion projects and progressive shareholder returns. The recent increase in buyback authorization and upgraded earnings guidance strengthen confidence in Inpex's ability to deliver on operational discipline, but they do not materially shift the key short-term catalyst: on-time, on-budget execution of its large LNG projects. The main near-term risk remains potential execution setbacks or commodity price volatility, which could pressure future margins.

Among recent announcements, the upward revision in full-year earnings guidance on November 13, 2025, stands out. This adjustment reflects strong, safe operations at key projects and more supportive market assumptions for sales volume, crude oil prices, and exchange rates, directly tying into confidence around ongoing earnings delivery as a core catalyst.

Yet, despite these positive signals, investors must keep in mind the risk that if the global shift toward renewables accelerates faster than anticipated, the current growth trajectory could face...

Read the full narrative on Inpex (it's free!)

Inpex's narrative projects ¥1,853.8 billion revenue and ¥308.2 billion earnings by 2028. This requires a 4.4% annual revenue decline and a decrease of ¥130.1 billion in earnings from ¥438.3 billion currently.

Uncover how Inpex's forecasts yield a ¥2548 fair value, a 19% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community place Inpex’s worth between ¥1,225 and ¥5,305 per share. While many expect resilient LNG demand to support expansion projects, some acknowledge risks if the renewables transition quickens, opening room for sharply different outlooks.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on Inpex - why the stock might be worth as much as 69% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Inpex Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Inpex research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Inpex research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Inpex's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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