Nomura Holdings, Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Nomura Holdings, Inc. (TSE:8604) just released its latest half-yearly results and things are looking bullish. It was a solid earnings report, with revenues and statutory earnings per share (EPS) both coming in strong. Revenues were 14% higher than the analysts had forecast, at JP¥515b, while EPS were JP¥31.34 beating analyst models by 23%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the six analysts covering Nomura Holdings provided consensus estimates of JP¥1.93t revenue in 2026, which would reflect a small 3.3% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 6.0% to JP¥119 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.84t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥113 in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

Check out our latest analysis for Nomura Holdings

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of JP¥1,131, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Nomura Holdings at JP¥1,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥990. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Nomura Holdings shareholders.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Nomura Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 6.5% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.7% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Nomura Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Nomura Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,131, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nomura Holdings going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Nomura Holdings (of which 1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.