Earnings Beat: GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for GMO Payment Gateway, Inc. (TSE:3769) shareholders, with its shares surging 17% to JP¥9,944 in the week since its latest annual results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥82b were in line with what the analysts predicted, GMO Payment Gateway surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥288 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on GMO Payment Gateway after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from GMO Payment Gateway's eleven analysts is for revenues of JP¥95.1b in 2026. This reflects a notable 15% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 8.9% to JP¥313. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥96.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥316 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for GMO Payment Gateway

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥9,928, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on GMO Payment Gateway, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥11,200 and the most bearish at JP¥8,200 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that GMO Payment Gateway is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GMO Payment Gateway going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for GMO Payment Gateway that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.