Earnings Beat: Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Saizeriya Co.,Ltd. (TSE:7581) shareholders, with its shares surging 14% to JP¥5,500 in the week since its latest yearly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥257b were in line with what the analysts predicted, SaizeriyaLtd surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥227 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from SaizeriyaLtd's ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥278.7b in 2026. This would reflect a meaningful 8.5% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to increase 8.4% to JP¥246. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥277.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥242 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

See our latest analysis for SaizeriyaLtd

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,033, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SaizeriyaLtd at JP¥7,100 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,600. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SaizeriyaLtd's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 8.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like SaizeriyaLtd is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for SaizeriyaLtd going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.