Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Welcia Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:3141) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to JP¥1,950 in the week after its latest half-year results. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥631b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 18% to hit JP¥42.98 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Welcia Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Welcia Holdings' twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥1.27t in 2025. This reflects a modest 2.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥107, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.26t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥116 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,144, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Welcia Holdings at JP¥2,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,750. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Welcia Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.5% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 8.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Welcia Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Welcia Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,144, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Welcia Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Welcia Holdings Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.