Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that IK HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. (TSE:2722) does use debt in its business. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
What Is IK HOLDINGSLtd's Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that IK HOLDINGSLtd had JP¥2.01b of debt in November 2024, down from JP¥2.27b, one year before. However, it also had JP¥161.0m in cash, and so its net debt is JP¥1.85b.
How Strong Is IK HOLDINGSLtd's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that IK HOLDINGSLtd had liabilities of JP¥3.02b falling due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥1.24b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had JP¥161.0m in cash and JP¥2.90b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by JP¥1.21b.
IK HOLDINGSLtd has a market capitalization of JP¥2.65b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
View our latest analysis for IK HOLDINGSLtd
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
IK HOLDINGSLtd's net debt is 3.5 times its EBITDA, which is a significant but still reasonable amount of leverage. However, its interest coverage of 34.5 is very high, suggesting that the interest expense on the debt is currently quite low. Notably, IK HOLDINGSLtd made a loss at the EBIT level, last year, but improved that to positive EBIT of JP¥380m in the last twelve months. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine IK HOLDINGSLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts .
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of the earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) is backed by free cash flow. During the last year, IK HOLDINGSLtd burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
Neither IK HOLDINGSLtd's ability to convert EBIT to free cash flow nor its net debt to EBITDA gave us confidence in its ability to take on more debt. But its interest cover tells a very different story, and suggests some resilience. Taking the abovementioned factors together we do think IK HOLDINGSLtd's debt poses some risks to the business. So while that leverage does boost returns on equity, we wouldn't really want to see it increase from here. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 5 warning signs we've spotted with IK HOLDINGSLtd (including 1 which can't be ignored) .
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About TSE:2722
IK HOLDINGSLtd
Engages in the direct marketing, sales marketing, and IT solution businesses in Japan.
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