Earnings Report: Goldwin Inc. Missed Revenue Estimates By 7.1%

Goldwin Inc. (TSE:8111) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.7% to JP¥7,184 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥24b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at JP¥546 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Goldwin are now predicting revenues of JP¥139.7b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 6.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.8% to JP¥583. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥140.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥598 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Goldwin

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥10,871, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Goldwin analyst has a price target of JP¥15,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥8,500. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Goldwin'shistorical trends, as the 8.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 9.1% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.8% annually. So although Goldwin is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's only growing at about the rate of the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Goldwin going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Goldwin that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.