The 6.1% return this week takes Nikon's (TSE:7731) shareholders three-year gains to 51%

Thanks in no small measure to Vanguard founder Jack Bogle, it's easy buy a low cost index fund, which should provide the average market return. But if you pick the right individual stocks, you could make more than that. Notably, the Nikon Corporation (TSE:7731) share price has gained 37% in three years, which is better than the average market return. In contrast, the stock is actually down 14% in the last year, suggesting a lack of positive momentum.

Since the stock has added JP¥32b to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

See our latest analysis for Nikon

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Nikon became profitable within the last three years. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It is of course excellent to see how Nikon has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at Nikon's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Nikon the TSR over the last 3 years was 51%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Nikon shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 4%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Nikon that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com