Shimano Inc. Just Missed Earnings With A Surprise Loss - Here Are Analysts Latest Forecasts

There's been a major selloff in Shimano Inc. (TSE:7309) shares in the week since it released its half-year report, with the stock down 23% to JP¥16,575. The results don't look great, especially considering that the analysts had been forecasting a profit and Shimano delivered a statutory loss of JP¥65.30 per share. Revenues of JP¥237b did beat expectations by 4.7% though. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Shimano's twelve analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥468.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.1% to JP¥447. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥471.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥737 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the large cut to new EPS forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Shimano

The average price target fell 5.8% to JP¥21,201, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Shimano, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥26,300 and the most bearish at JP¥17,500 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.2% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 2.0% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.4% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Shimano is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Shimano's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shimano. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shimano going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Shimano (1 is potentially serious!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.