HASEKO (TSE:1808) Valuation in Focus After Earnings Forecast Upgrade and Dividend Hike

HASEKO (TSE:1808) has just revised its earnings guidance upward for the fiscal year ending March 2026, following better-than-expected results in its condominium construction business and steady operating trends across the company.

See our latest analysis for HASEKO.

HASEKO’s upbeat earnings outlook and a recently completed share buyback have helped fuel investor enthusiasm, with a 13.6% 1-month share price return and a strong 43.7% gain year-to-date. Supported by these moves, the company has delivered a remarkable 55.9% total shareholder return over the past year and an impressive 117% over three years, signaling sustained momentum as confidence builds around its growth story.

If HASEKO’s run-up has you wondering where else momentum is gathering, consider broadening your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

But with HASEKO’s shares climbing and upbeat forecasts now on the table, investors face a familiar question: is there further room for upside, or has the market already priced in all of this future growth?

Price-to-Earnings of 19.7x: Is it justified?

Based on its current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.7x, HASEKO appears expensive relative to both its industry peers and historical averages. With the stock closing at ¥2,908.5, the valuation stands well above the average P/E found across the market and sector.

The P/E ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each yen of earnings, providing insight into market expectations for future growth and profitability. For a company like HASEKO, this ratio can signal how optimistic the market is about profit expansion going forward.

In practice, HASEKO’s multiple outpaces the peer average of 10.7x and is also notably higher than the Japanese Consumer Durables industry average of 11.7x. This suggests heightened optimism is priced in, perhaps more than current sector trends might justify. Interestingly, the stock trades just below its estimated Fair P/E Ratio of 20.3x, indicating that while expensive, the price may not be entirely disconnected from calculated fair value levels that the market could revert toward.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for HASEKO

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 19.7x (OVERVALUED)

However, slower revenue growth and shares trading above analyst price targets suggest caution, since even minor setbacks could challenge the current bullish outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this HASEKO narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Model Has a Starkly Different Take

While traditional price-to-earnings metrics suggest HASEKO is expensive, our SWS DCF model presents a very different story. The DCF estimate points to a fair value of ¥1,053.55, which is far below the current share price. Does this profound disconnect indicate further downside risk, or is the market considering factors outside the DCF’s lens?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out HASEKO for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 927 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own HASEKO Narrative

If you have a different perspective or want to take a hands-on approach, it's easy to explore the numbers and develop your own view in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your HASEKO research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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