Central Security Patrols Co., Ltd.

TSE:9740 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥40.0b

Central Security Patrols Valuation

Is 9740 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 9740 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 9740 (¥2741) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥7189.45)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 9740 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 9740?

Key metric: As 9740 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 9740. This is calculated by dividing 9740's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 9740's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.6x
EarningsJP¥2.74b
Market CapJP¥39.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 9740's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 9740 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.1x
9686 Toyo TecLtd
26.1xn/aJP¥12.8b
4754 TOSNET
11.9xn/aJP¥6.0b
4379 Photosynth
62.5xn/aJP¥5.7b
7058 Kyoei Security Service
16.1x26.3%JP¥3.5b
9740 Central Security Patrols
14.6x8.0%JP¥40.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 9740 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the peer average (29.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 9740's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Commercial Services Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
7997 Kurogane Kosakusho
1.4xn/aUS$8.23m
No more companies available in this PE range
9740 14.6xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 9740 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the JP Commercial Services industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 9740's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

9740 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.6x
Fair PE Ratio13.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 9740 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 9740 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥2,741.00
JP¥3,050.00
+11.3%
1.6%JP¥3,100.00JP¥3,000.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥2,743.00
JP¥3,050.00
+11.2%
1.6%JP¥3,100.00JP¥3,000.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥2,856.00
JP¥2,925.00
+2.4%
0.9%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,900.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥2,720.00
JP¥2,925.00
+7.5%
0.9%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,900.00n/a2
Aug ’25JP¥2,687.00
JP¥2,875.00
+7.0%
2.6%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,800.00n/a2
Jul ’25JP¥3,155.00
JP¥2,875.00
-8.9%
2.6%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,800.00n/a2
Jun ’25JP¥2,935.00
JP¥2,875.00
-2.0%
2.6%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,800.00n/a2
May ’25JP¥2,702.00
JP¥2,850.00
+5.5%
3.5%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,750.00n/a2
Apr ’25JP¥2,640.00
JP¥2,850.00
+8.0%
3.5%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,750.00n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥2,538.00
JP¥2,850.00
+12.3%
3.5%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,750.00n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥2,529.00
JP¥2,900.00
+14.7%
1.7%JP¥2,950.00JP¥2,850.00n/a2
Nov ’24JP¥2,611.00
JP¥2,925.00
+12.0%
2.6%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,850.00JP¥2,743.002
Oct ’24JP¥3,125.00
JP¥3,100.00
-0.8%
3.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,856.002
Sep ’24JP¥3,060.00
JP¥3,100.00
+1.3%
3.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,720.002
Aug ’24JP¥2,965.00
JP¥3,100.00
+4.6%
3.2%JP¥3,200.00JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,687.002
Jul ’24JP¥2,828.00
JP¥2,950.00
+4.3%
1.7%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥3,155.002
Jun ’24JP¥2,769.00
JP¥2,950.00
+6.5%
1.7%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,935.002
May ’24JP¥2,845.00
JP¥2,950.00
+3.7%
1.7%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,900.00JP¥2,702.002
Apr ’24JP¥2,711.00
JP¥2,875.00
+6.0%
4.3%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,640.002
Mar ’24JP¥2,508.00
JP¥2,875.00
+14.6%
4.3%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,538.002
Feb ’24JP¥2,642.00
JP¥2,875.00
+8.8%
4.3%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,750.00JP¥2,529.002
Jan ’24JP¥2,331.00
JP¥2,775.00
+19.0%
8.1%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥2,548.002
Dec ’23JP¥2,443.00
JP¥2,775.00
+13.6%
8.1%JP¥3,000.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥2,443.002
Nov ’23JP¥2,573.00
JP¥2,925.00
+13.7%
12.8%JP¥3,300.00JP¥2,550.00JP¥2,611.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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