There May Be Reason For Hope In KOSAIDO Holdings' (TSE:7868) Disappointing Earnings

KOSAIDO Holdings Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:7868) recent soft profit numbers didn't appear to worry shareholders, as the stock price showed strength. Our analysis suggests that investors may have noticed some promising signs beyond the statutory profit figures.

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A Closer Look At KOSAIDO Holdings' Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. The accrual ratio subtracts the FCF from the profit for a given period, and divides the result by the average operating assets of the company over that time. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2025, KOSAIDO Holdings had an accrual ratio of -0.33. Therefore, its statutory earnings were very significantly less than its free cashflow. In fact, it had free cash flow of JP¥20b in the last year, which was a lot more than its statutory profit of JP¥4.04b. Notably, KOSAIDO Holdings had negative free cash flow last year, so the JP¥20b it produced this year was a welcome improvement.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On KOSAIDO Holdings' Profit Performance

Happily for shareholders, KOSAIDO Holdings produced plenty of free cash flow to back up its statutory profit numbers. Based on this observation, we consider it possible that KOSAIDO Holdings' statutory profit actually understates its earnings potential! On the other hand, its EPS actually shrunk in the last twelve months. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. In terms of investment risks, we've identified 1 warning sign with KOSAIDO Holdings, and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of KOSAIDO Holdings' profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.