Visional Valuation

Is 4194 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4194 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4194 (¥7917) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥16894.87)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4194 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4194?

Key metric: As 4194 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4194. This is calculated by dividing 4194's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4194's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24.2x
EarningsJP¥12.99b
Market CapJP¥312.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4194's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4194 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35.9x
6028 TechnoPro Holdings
18.9x12.4%JP¥286.1b
2427 OUTSOURCING
42.7x49.2%JP¥220.4b
2412 Benefit One
64.2x35.5%JP¥343.8b
9744 MEITEC Group Holdings
18x4.9%JP¥218.3b
4194 Visional
24.2x12.4%JP¥312.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4194 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the peer average (35.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4194's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Professional Services Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2168 Pasona Group
0.8x-152.3%US$514.67m
No more companies available in this PE range
4194 24.2xIndustry Avg. 15.0xNo. of Companies25PE01020304050+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4194 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the JP Professional Services industry average (15x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4194's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4194 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24.2x
Fair PE Ratio21.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4194 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4194 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥7,917.00
JP¥9,638.33
+21.7%
10.5%JP¥11,130.00JP¥8,000.00n/a6
Nov ’25JP¥8,078.00
JP¥9,832.86
+21.7%
10.7%JP¥11,130.00JP¥8,000.00n/a7
Oct ’25JP¥8,010.00
JP¥9,832.86
+22.8%
10.7%JP¥11,130.00JP¥8,000.00n/a7
Sep ’25JP¥8,920.00
JP¥9,604.29
+7.7%
14.7%JP¥11,130.00JP¥6,900.00n/a7
Aug ’25JP¥7,660.00
JP¥9,266.67
+21.0%
14.5%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,900.00n/a6
Jul ’25JP¥7,130.00
JP¥9,480.00
+33.0%
14.5%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,900.00n/a5
Jun ’25JP¥7,500.00
JP¥10,180.00
+35.7%
12.1%JP¥12,000.00JP¥8,400.00n/a5
May ’25JP¥7,360.00
JP¥10,180.00
+38.3%
12.1%JP¥12,000.00JP¥8,400.00n/a5
Apr ’25JP¥9,130.00
JP¥10,140.00
+11.1%
12.0%JP¥12,000.00JP¥8,400.00n/a5
Mar ’25JP¥8,660.00
JP¥9,840.00
+13.6%
15.2%JP¥12,000.00JP¥7,900.00n/a5
Feb ’25JP¥9,100.00
JP¥9,840.00
+8.1%
15.2%JP¥12,000.00JP¥7,900.00n/a5
Jan ’25JP¥8,980.00
JP¥8,883.33
-1.1%
13.0%JP¥10,800.00JP¥7,500.00n/a6
Dec ’24JP¥7,820.00
JP¥9,142.86
+16.9%
15.5%JP¥12,000.00JP¥7,500.00JP¥7,885.007
Nov ’24JP¥7,220.00
JP¥9,083.33
+25.8%
16.7%JP¥12,000.00JP¥7,500.00JP¥8,078.006
Oct ’24JP¥7,540.00
JP¥9,083.33
+20.5%
16.7%JP¥12,000.00JP¥7,500.00JP¥8,010.006
Sep ’24JP¥7,650.00
JP¥9,416.67
+23.1%
8.9%JP¥11,000.00JP¥8,500.00JP¥8,920.006
Aug ’24JP¥7,830.00
JP¥9,633.33
+23.0%
7.6%JP¥11,000.00JP¥9,000.00JP¥7,660.006
Jul ’24JP¥7,940.00
JP¥9,633.33
+21.3%
7.6%JP¥11,000.00JP¥9,000.00JP¥7,130.006
Jun ’24JP¥7,200.00
JP¥9,433.33
+31.0%
5.0%JP¥10,000.00JP¥8,900.00JP¥7,500.006
May ’24JP¥6,930.00
JP¥9,620.00
+38.8%
5.9%JP¥10,300.00JP¥8,900.00JP¥7,360.005
Apr ’24JP¥7,400.00
JP¥10,820.00
+46.2%
10.6%JP¥13,000.00JP¥9,900.00JP¥9,130.005
Mar ’24JP¥9,410.00
JP¥11,660.00
+23.9%
8.1%JP¥13,000.00JP¥10,700.00JP¥8,660.005
Feb ’24JP¥9,330.00
JP¥11,660.00
+25.0%
8.1%JP¥13,000.00JP¥10,700.00JP¥9,100.005
Jan ’24JP¥8,720.00
JP¥11,660.00
+33.7%
8.1%JP¥13,000.00JP¥10,700.00JP¥8,980.005
Dec ’23JP¥11,000.00
JP¥11,180.00
+1.6%
8.9%JP¥13,000.00JP¥10,000.00JP¥7,820.005

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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