Open Up Group Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2154 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2154 (¥1845) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥3062)

Is 2154 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2154 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2154 (¥1845) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥3062)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2154 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2154?

Key metric: As 2154 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2154. This is calculated by dividing 2154's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2154's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	15.1x
Earnings	JP¥10.62b
Market Cap	JP¥160.24b

2154 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8.5x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2154's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2154 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	17.7x
2175 SMS	20.3x	17.3%	JP¥136.3b
2379 DIP	13.9x	14.1%	JP¥135.2b
9744 MEITEC Group Holdings	18x	4.9%	JP¥218.5b
2124 JAC Recruitment	18.8x	19.2%	JP¥111.2b
2154 Open Up Group	15.1x	11.8%	JP¥160.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2154 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2154's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Professional Services Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
2168 Pasona Group	0.8x	-152.3%	US$496.89m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2154 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the JP Professional Services industry average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2154's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2154 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	15.1x
Fair PE Ratio	18.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2154 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2154 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	JP¥1,845.00	JP¥2,550.00 +38.2%	2.0%	JP¥2,600.00	JP¥2,500.00	n/a	2
Nov ’25	JP¥1,988.00	JP¥2,550.00 +28.3%	2.0%	JP¥2,600.00	JP¥2,500.00	n/a	2
Oct ’25	JP¥2,030.00	JP¥2,550.00 +25.6%	2.0%	JP¥2,600.00	JP¥2,500.00	n/a	2
Sep ’25	JP¥1,960.00	JP¥2,550.00 +30.1%	2.0%	JP¥2,600.00	JP¥2,500.00	n/a	2
Oct ’24	JP¥1,835.00	JP¥2,550.00 +39.0%	9.8%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,300.00	JP¥2,030.00	2
Sep ’24	JP¥2,008.00	JP¥2,550.00 +27.0%	9.8%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,300.00	JP¥1,960.00	2
Aug ’24	JP¥2,191.00	JP¥2,550.00 +16.4%	9.8%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,300.00	JP¥2,061.00	2
Jul ’24	JP¥2,097.00	JP¥2,550.00 +21.6%	9.8%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,300.00	JP¥2,026.00	2
Jun ’24	JP¥1,874.00	JP¥2,550.00 +36.1%	9.8%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,300.00	JP¥2,067.00	2
May ’24	JP¥1,967.00	JP¥2,500.00 +27.1%	12.0%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥1,987.00	2
Apr ’24	JP¥1,919.00	JP¥2,500.00 +30.3%	12.0%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥2,052.00	2
Mar ’24	JP¥1,886.00	JP¥2,500.00 +32.6%	12.0%	JP¥2,800.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥2,126.00	2
Feb ’24	JP¥1,918.00	JP¥2,450.00 +27.7%	10.2%	JP¥2,700.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥2,327.00	2
Jan ’24	JP¥1,701.00	JP¥2,450.00 +44.0%	10.2%	JP¥2,700.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥2,349.00	2
Dec ’23	JP¥1,931.00	JP¥2,450.00 +26.9%	10.2%	JP¥2,700.00	JP¥2,200.00	JP¥2,159.00	2
Nov ’23	JP¥1,881.00	JP¥2,350.00 +24.9%	14.9%	JP¥2,700.00	JP¥2,000.00	JP¥1,920.00	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.