Stock Analysis

Is There An Opportunity With MISUMI Group Inc.'s (TSE:9962) 20% Undervaluation?

Published
TSE:9962

Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for MISUMI Group is JP¥3,250 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • MISUMI Group's JP¥2,589 share price signals that it might be 20% undervalued
  • Analyst price target for 9962 is JP¥3,157 which is 2.9% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of MISUMI Group Inc. (TSE:9962) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for MISUMI Group

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Levered FCF (¥, Millions) JP¥27.2b JP¥31.1b JP¥36.0b JP¥40.1b JP¥42.8b JP¥44.6b JP¥46.0b JP¥47.0b JP¥47.8b JP¥48.4b
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x2 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 4.28% Est @ 3.07% Est @ 2.23% Est @ 1.64% Est @ 1.22%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 5.2% JP¥25.8k JP¥28.1k JP¥31.0k JP¥32.8k JP¥33.2k JP¥33.0k JP¥32.3k JP¥31.4k JP¥30.3k JP¥29.2k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥307b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.3%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.2%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥48b× (1 + 0.3%) ÷ (5.2%– 0.3%) = JP¥985b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= JP¥985b÷ ( 1 + 5.2%)10= JP¥594b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is JP¥902b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of JP¥2.6k, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 20% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

TSE:9962 Discounted Cash Flow September 21st 2024

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at MISUMI Group as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.989. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for MISUMI Group

Strength
  • Currently debt free.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Earnings growth over the past year underperformed the Machinery industry.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Japanese market.
  • Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For MISUMI Group, we've compiled three additional factors you should consider:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with MISUMI Group , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
  2. Future Earnings: How does 9962's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Japanese stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.