Toyota Tsusho (TSE:8015) Valuation After Upgraded Earnings Forecast and Higher Dividends

Toyota Tsusho (TSE:8015) updated investors by raising its consolidated earnings forecast and announcing higher interim and year-end dividends for the fiscal year ending March 2026, following strong second quarter results that were driven by the weak Japanese yen.

See our latest analysis for Toyota Tsusho.

Toyota Tsusho’s strong financial updates have helped fuel significant momentum in its shares this year, with a 70.7% price return year-to-date and a stellar 83.9% total shareholder return over the past twelve months. The latest boost in guidance and dividends has only reinforced the company’s long-term growth narrative. Three- and five-year total returns now stand at 202% and nearly 394% respectively, giving investors even more reason to watch where the stock goes next.

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With such a strong rally behind it, the key question now is whether Toyota Tsusho’s stock remains undervalued, or if the impressive gains have already factored in all the future growth investors can expect.

Most Popular Narrative: 13% Overvalued

Toyota Tsusho’s last close is well above the leading narrative’s fair value, suggesting that the market is pricing in even more upside than the most optimistic scenario. Before diving deeper, consider what is driving this bold stance from the consensus.

Toyota Tsusho is aggressively expanding its recycling, renewable energy, and decarbonization businesses, including large-scale battery recycling and green steel, positioning itself to capture upside from the accelerating global shift toward electrification and ESG-driven supply chain transformation, which should drive higher revenue growth and margin improvement in coming years.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what is powering these ambitious projections? The secret lies in growth engines outside the company’s traditional markets, plus key assumptions around future margins and international expansion. Which forecasts are behind the current price, and what might surprise even seasoned analysts? Click to uncover the numbers behind the narrative.

Result: Fair Value of ¥4,138 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, unexpected swings in currency exchange rates or setbacks in key projects could quickly undermine the company's ambitious growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Toyota Tsusho narrative.

Build Your Own Toyota Tsusho Narrative

If you see the story a bit differently, or simply want to dive into the data yourself, you can shape your own view in just a few minutes: Do it your way

A great starting point for your Toyota Tsusho research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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