Earnings Miss: Marubeni Corporation Missed EPS By 11% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's been a mediocre week for Marubeni Corporation (TSE:8002) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to JP¥2,407 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥2.1t, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥85.50 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Marubeni

After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Marubeni are now predicting revenues of JP¥7.78t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 6.9% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 7.3% to JP¥305. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥7.64t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥304 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,322, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Marubeni analyst has a price target of JP¥3,800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,850. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Marubeni's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 4.6% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 0.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Marubeni is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,322, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Marubeni going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Marubeni that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com