Tsubaki Nakashima Co., Ltd.

TSE:6464 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥20.8b

Tsubaki Nakashima Valuation

Is 6464 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 6464 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 6464 (¥522) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥1706.47)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 6464 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 6464?

Key metric: As 6464 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 6464. This is calculated by dividing 6464's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 6464's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.3x
SalesJP¥82.11b
Market CapJP¥20.80b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 6464's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 6464 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
1964 Chugai Ro
0.7xn/aJP¥21.3b
6489 Maezawa Industries
0.6xn/aJP¥21.1b
5957 NittoseikoLtd
0.5x6.3%JP¥21.7b
6246 Techno Smart
1.1xn/aJP¥19.0b
6464 Tsubaki Nakashima
0.3x2.8%JP¥20.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 6464 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 6464's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Machinery Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
4242 Takagi Seiko
0.08xn/aUS$25.26m
6217 Tsudakoma
0.06xn/aUS$15.22m
No more companies available in this PS range
6464 0.3xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies28PS00.40.81.21.62+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 6464 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the JP Machinery industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 6464's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

6464 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.3x
Fair PS Ratio0.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 6464 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 6464 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥522.00
JP¥835.00
+60.0%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Nov ’25JP¥680.00
JP¥835.00
+22.8%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Oct ’25JP¥699.00
JP¥835.00
+19.5%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Sep ’25JP¥701.00
JP¥835.00
+19.1%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Aug ’25JP¥757.00
JP¥835.00
+10.3%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Jul ’25JP¥812.00
JP¥835.00
+2.8%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Jun ’25JP¥783.00
JP¥835.00
+6.6%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
May ’25JP¥845.00
JP¥835.00
-1.2%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Apr ’25JP¥853.00
JP¥835.00
-2.1%
7.8%JP¥900.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Mar ’25JP¥770.00
JP¥785.00
+1.9%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Feb ’25JP¥749.00
JP¥785.00
+4.8%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Jan ’25JP¥732.00
JP¥785.00
+7.2%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Dec ’24JP¥742.00
JP¥785.00
+5.8%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00n/a2
Nov ’24JP¥741.00
JP¥785.00
+5.9%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00JP¥680.002
Oct ’24JP¥781.00
JP¥785.00
+0.5%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00JP¥699.002
Sep ’24JP¥823.00
JP¥785.00
-4.6%
1.9%JP¥800.00JP¥770.00JP¥701.002
May ’24JP¥966.00
JP¥1,250.00
+29.4%
20.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥845.002
Apr ’24JP¥955.00
JP¥1,250.00
+30.9%
20.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥853.002
Mar ’24JP¥1,092.00
JP¥1,250.00
+14.5%
20.0%JP¥1,500.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥770.002
Feb ’24JP¥1,123.00
JP¥1,400.00
+24.7%
21.0%JP¥1,700.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥749.003
Jan ’24JP¥1,020.00
JP¥1,400.00
+37.3%
21.0%JP¥1,700.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥732.003
Dec ’23JP¥1,035.00
JP¥1,500.00
+44.9%
33.3%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,000.00JP¥742.002
Nov ’23JP¥1,224.00
JP¥1,730.00
+41.3%
15.6%JP¥2,000.00JP¥1,460.00JP¥741.002

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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