Galilei (TSE:6420) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

The recent earnings posted by Galilei Co. Ltd. (TSE:6420) were solid, but the stock didn't move as much as we expected. However the statutory profit number doesn't tell the whole story, and we have found some factors which might be of concern to shareholders.

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Examining Cashflow Against Galilei's Earnings

As finance nerds would already know, the accrual ratio from cashflow is a key measure for assessing how well a company's free cash flow (FCF) matches its profit. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. This ratio tells us how much of a company's profit is not backed by free cashflow.

That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to September 2025, Galilei had an accrual ratio of 0.21. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. In fact, it had free cash flow of JP¥1.8b in the last year, which was a lot less than its statutory profit of JP¥12.6b. Galilei's free cash flow actually declined over the last year, but it may bounce back next year, since free cash flow is often more volatile than accounting profits.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Galilei's Profit Performance

Galilei didn't convert much of its profit to free cash flow in the last year, which some investors may consider rather suboptimal. Therefore, it seems possible to us that Galilei's true underlying earnings power is actually less than its statutory profit. Nonetheless, it's still worth noting that its earnings per share have grown at 64% over the last three years. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. For example, we've found that Galilei has 2 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that deserve your attention before going any further with your analysis.

Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Galilei's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.