Chiyoda Corporation's (TSE:6366) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

There wouldn't be many who think Chiyoda Corporation's (TSE:6366) price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.2x is worth a mention when the median P/S for the Construction industry in Japan is similar at about 0.6x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

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See our latest analysis for Chiyoda

What Does Chiyoda's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Chiyoda's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. It might be that many expect the dour revenue performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/S from falling. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

Keen to find out how analysts think Chiyoda's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

Chiyoda's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver moderate growth, and importantly, perform in line with the industry.

Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 13%. However, a few very strong years before that means that it was still able to grow revenue by an impressive 40% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would definitely welcome the medium-term rates of revenue growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with revenue decreasing 7.8% per year as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. That's not great when the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 2.3% per year.

With this in consideration, we think it doesn't make sense that Chiyoda's P/S is closely matching its industry peers. Apparently many investors in the company reject the analyst cohort's pessimism and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

While Chiyoda's P/S isn't anything out of the ordinary for companies in the industry, we didn't expect it given forecasts of revenue decline. When we see a gloomy outlook like this, our immediate thoughts are that the share price is at risk of declining, negatively impacting P/S. If the poor revenue outlook tells us one thing, it's that these current price levels could be unsustainable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Chiyoda you should be aware of.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Chiyoda, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.