We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

AGC Valuation

Is 5201 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 5201?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

5201 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA4.6x
PEG Ratio1.2x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 5201's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 5201 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21x
5332 Toto
17.7x4.7%JP¥780.0b
5938 LIXIL
29.5x25.0%JP¥607.7b
5929 Sanwa Holdings
8.9x-1.1%JP¥302.6b
6367 Daikin IndustriesLtd
28x9.2%JP¥6.6t
11.3x9.8%JP¥1.0t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 5201 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the peer average (21x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 5201's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Building Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a10.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 5201 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the JP Building industry average (10.4x)


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 5201's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

5201 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio11.3x
Fair PE Ratio15.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 5201 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 5201 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 5201 (¥4730) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥9113.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 5201 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 5201 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥4,730.00
JP¥5,421.25
+14.6%
12.9%JP¥6,300.00JP¥4,500.00n/a8
Jan ’24JP¥4,395.00
JP¥5,831.25
+32.7%
21.0%JP¥8,600.00JP¥4,500.00n/a8
Dec ’23JP¥4,605.00
JP¥5,831.25
+26.6%
21.0%JP¥8,600.00JP¥4,500.00n/a8
Nov ’23JP¥4,670.00
JP¥6,200.00
+32.8%
17.5%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a8
Oct ’23JP¥4,490.00
JP¥6,287.50
+40.0%
17.8%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a8
Sep ’23JP¥4,740.00
JP¥6,333.33
+33.6%
16.8%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a9
Aug ’23JP¥4,805.00
JP¥6,597.78
+37.3%
14.1%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a9
Jul ’23JP¥4,715.00
JP¥6,538.00
+38.7%
13.7%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a10
Jun ’23JP¥4,990.00
JP¥6,507.27
+30.4%
13.2%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a11
May ’23JP¥4,890.00
JP¥6,643.64
+35.9%
13.7%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a11
Apr ’23JP¥4,915.00
JP¥6,634.55
+35.0%
13.6%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,000.00n/a11
Mar ’23JP¥5,020.00
JP¥6,865.00
+36.8%
11.9%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,400.00n/a10
Feb ’23JP¥5,080.00
JP¥6,802.00
+33.9%
11.3%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,730.0010
Jan ’23JP¥5,490.00
JP¥6,802.00
+23.9%
11.3%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,395.0010
Dec ’22JP¥5,470.00
JP¥6,782.00
+24.0%
11.6%JP¥8,600.00JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,605.0010
Nov ’22JP¥5,860.00
JP¥6,217.00
+6.1%
7.5%JP¥7,000.00JP¥5,400.00JP¥4,670.0010
Oct ’22JP¥5,650.00
JP¥6,087.00
+7.7%
7.3%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,100.00JP¥4,490.0010
Sep ’22JP¥5,440.00
JP¥5,987.00
+10.1%
7.6%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,100.00JP¥4,740.0010
Aug ’22JP¥4,665.00
JP¥5,755.00
+23.4%
9.1%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,000.00JP¥4,805.0010
Jul ’22JP¥4,645.00
JP¥5,755.00
+23.9%
9.1%JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,000.00JP¥4,715.0010
Jun ’22JP¥4,870.00
JP¥5,585.00
+14.7%
12.9%JP¥6,800.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,990.0010
May ’22JP¥4,980.00
JP¥5,202.00
+4.5%
16.3%JP¥6,800.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,890.0010
Apr ’22JP¥4,535.00
JP¥4,801.11
+5.9%
9.2%JP¥5,500.00JP¥4,100.00JP¥4,915.009
Mar ’22JP¥3,925.00
JP¥4,288.75
+9.3%
11.3%JP¥5,110.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥5,020.008
Feb ’22JP¥3,665.00
JP¥3,925.00
+7.1%
8.5%JP¥4,500.00JP¥3,500.00JP¥5,080.008

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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