Results: Nifco Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

It's been a good week for Nifco Inc. (TSE:7988) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.2% to JP¥3,433. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥353b were what the analysts expected, Nifco surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥462 per share, an impressive 30% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nifco after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Nifco's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥356.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 25% to JP¥353 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥357.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥355 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Nifco

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥4,386, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Nifco, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥5,300 and the most bearish at JP¥3,800 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Nifco's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 8.2% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.6% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Nifco.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nifco's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nifco going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Nifco you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.