Mazda Motor Corporation (TSE:7261) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

As you might know, Mazda Motor Corporation (TSE:7261) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at JP¥1.1t, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of JP¥66.79 some 108% larger than what the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Mazda Motor's 15 analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥4.89t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 71% to JP¥60.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥4.86t and losses of JP¥13.18 per share in 2026. While there's been no material change to the revenue estimates, there's been a pretty clear upgrade to earnings estimates, with the analysts expecting a per-share profit compared to previous expectations of a loss. So it seems like the latest results have led to a significant increase in sentiment for Mazda Motor.

See our latest analysis for Mazda Motor

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥958, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mazda Motor at JP¥1,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥700. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Mazda Motor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.6% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Mazda Motor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been a clear step-change in belief around the business' prospects, with the analysts now expecting Mazda Motor to become profitable next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥958, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Mazda Motor going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.