Mazda Motor Corporation Just Missed EPS By 16%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Mazda Motor Corporation (TSE:7261) came out with its full-year results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of JP¥5.0t were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 16% to hit JP¥181 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mazda Motor after the latest results.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.

Following last week's earnings report, Mazda Motor's 14 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥4.99t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 33% to JP¥240. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥4.99t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥213 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

Check out our latest analysis for Mazda Motor

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥971, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mazda Motor at JP¥1,700 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥650. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.5% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 13% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Mazda Motor's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Mazda Motor's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Mazda Motor's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥971, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Mazda Motor analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Mazda Motor you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.