Toyota Motor Corporation Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year

Toyota Motor Corporation (TSE:7203) came out with its interim results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥25t were what the analysts expected, Toyota Motor surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥71.51 per share, an impressive 43% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Toyota Motor's 19 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥50t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 26% to JP¥262 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥50t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥259 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Motor

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥3,299. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyota Motor at JP¥3,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,400. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Toyota Motor's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Toyota Motor's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 2.8% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Toyota Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,299, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Toyota Motor going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with Toyota Motor (at least 2 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.