Earnings Miss: Toyota Motor Corporation Missed EPS By 19% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for Toyota Motor Corporation (TSE:7203), which a week ago released some disappointing interim results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at JP¥23t, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 19%, coming in at just JP¥142 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Motor

Following last week's earnings report, Toyota Motor's 18 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥47t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 3.4% to JP¥314 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥47t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥316 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,268, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Toyota Motor analyst has a price target of JP¥3,800 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,600. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Toyota Motor's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 3.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. Compare this to the 10 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Toyota Motor's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyota Motor going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Toyota Motor (2 are concerning) you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.