JTEKT Corporation Just Missed Revenue By 7.0%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Investors in JTEKT Corporation (TSE:6473) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at JP¥1,058 following the release of its interim results. Revenues came in 7.0% below expectations, at JP¥454b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of JP¥117 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for JTEKT

Taking into account the latest results, JTEKT's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be JP¥1.86t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 2.3% to JP¥69.68. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.96t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥125 in 2025. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share estimates.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 14% to JP¥1,375. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic JTEKT analyst has a price target of JP¥1,500 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,250. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 3.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.4% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that JTEKT's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for JTEKT. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on JTEKT. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JTEKT going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - JTEKT has 2 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.