JTEKT Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

As you might know, JTEKT Corporation (TSE:6473) recently reported its first-quarter numbers. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of JP¥455b were what the analysts expected, JTEKT surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of JP¥20.45 per share, an impressive 86% above what was forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, JTEKT's four analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥1.84t, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 182% to JP¥83.32. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.85t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥70.02 in 2026. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the nice increase in earnings per share expectations following these results.

View our latest analysis for JTEKT

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥1,350, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values JTEKT at JP¥1,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,320. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 2.3% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 10% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.6% per year. It's pretty clear that JTEKT's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards JTEKT following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that JTEKT's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥1,350, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for JTEKT going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for JTEKT (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.