Results: Niterra Co., Ltd. Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

As you might know, Niterra Co., Ltd. (TSE:5334) just kicked off its latest first-quarter results with some very strong numbers. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.8% to hit JP¥165b. Niterra also reported a statutory profit of JP¥140, which was an impressive 26% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Niterra

After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Niterra are now predicting revenues of JP¥649.9b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.7% to JP¥469. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥646.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥458 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of JP¥5,201, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Niterra at JP¥6,300 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥4,700. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Niterra's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 9.5% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 108 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Niterra is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Niterra following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥5,201, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Niterra analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Niterra that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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