Toyota Boshoku Corporation Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Investors in Toyota Boshoku Corporation (TSE:3116) had a good week, as its shares rose 4.4% to close at JP¥1,999 following the release of its half-yearly results. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at JP¥26.95, some 45% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at JP¥460b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Toyota Boshoku

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Toyota Boshoku provided consensus estimates of JP¥1.86t revenue in 2025, which would reflect a perceptible 4.0% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥236, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.92t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥245 in 2025. The analysts are less bullish than they were before these results, given the reduced revenue forecasts and the small dip in earnings per share expectations.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the JP¥2,229 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Toyota Boshoku at JP¥2,600 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,050. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.9% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.2% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Toyota Boshoku is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Toyota Boshoku. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Toyota Boshoku going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Toyota Boshoku that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.