Iren SpA Recorded A 27% Miss On Revenue: Analysts Are Revisiting Their Models

Iren SpA (BIT:IRE) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Iren reported a serious miss, with revenue of €1.5b falling a huge 27% short of analyst estimates. The bright side is that statutory earnings per share of €0.20 were in line with forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Iren

Taking into account the latest results, Iren's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €6.01b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.6% to €0.22. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €5.94b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.22 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €2.34. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Iren analyst has a price target of €2.60 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.15. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Iren is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Iren's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Iren's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.3% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Iren.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Iren's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Iren. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Iren analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Iren that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.