Fos (BIT:FOS) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of FOS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

FOS (€3.29) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€6.43)

FOS fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	2/6
Financial Health	5/6
Dividends	0/6

FOS Stock Overview

Fos S.p.A. provides technical consultancy services in Italy.

Rewards

Trading at 48.9% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 22.72% per year

Earnings have grown 28.3% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Does not have a meaningful market cap (€20M)

Fos Competitors

Sourcesense

BIT:SOU

€35.2m

Reti

BIT:RETI

€28.1m

Neurosoft Software Production

BIT:NRST

€15.9m

Softlab

BIT:SOF

€32.3m

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Fos
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€3.29
52 Week High	€4.30
52 Week Low	€2.93
Beta	0.49
1 Month Change	6.82%
3 Month Change	4.11%
1 Year Change	-15.42%
3 Year Change	n/a
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	1.23%

Recent News & Updates

Mar 23

Returns On Capital Signal Tricky Times Ahead For Fos (BIT:FOS)

If you're looking for a multi-bagger, there's a few things to keep an eye out for. One common approach is to try and...

Shareholder Returns

	FOS	IT IT	IT Market
7D	-2.7%	5.0%	1.9%
1Y	-15.4%	-38.3%	-14.8%

Return vs Industry: FOS exceeded the Italian IT industry which returned -36.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FOS matched the Italian Market which returned -15.4% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FOS's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FOS volatility
FOS Average Weekly Movement	4.0%
IT Industry Average Movement	5.2%
Market Average Movement	4.9%
10% most volatile stocks in IT Market	7.7%
10% least volatile stocks in IT Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: FOS is not significantly more volatile than the rest of Italian stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FOS's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1999	216	Gian Pedrelli	https://www.gruppofos.it/index.php/it

Fos S.p.A. provides technical consultancy services in Italy. The company engages in design and implementation of software solutions for health/medical and transport and shipping industries, banks and insurance companies, central and local public administrations; environment development; design software development; and software configuration management. It is also involved in design and implementation network operations centers and access solutions to business applications; design, installation, and management of local network and datacenter architectures, and corporate VPNs and application portals; design and management of geographic networks and dynamic routing protocols; provision of cyber security solutions comprising design and operational management of security architectures; definition and implementation of IS policies for sensitive data protection; and configuration of the security policies, as well as provision of cloud computing services, and solutions for Big Data/mail/database optimization projects; network, security, server, storage, back-up consolidation; and disaster recovery and business continuity solutions.

Fos Fundamentals Summary

How do Fos's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FOS fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€20.45m
Earnings (TTM)	€1.07m
Revenue (TTM)	€17.52m

19.1x

P/E Ratio

1.2x

P/S Ratio

Is FOS overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FOS income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€17.52m
Cost of Revenue	€6.05m
Gross Profit	€11.47m
Other Expenses	€10.40m
Earnings	€1.07m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 31, 2021

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	0.17
Gross Margin	65.46%
Net Profit Margin	6.11%
Debt/Equity Ratio	68.1%

How did FOS perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FOS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FOS?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for FOS. This is calculated by dividing FOS's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is FOS's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€20.45m

FOS key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.1x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9.2x
PEG Ratio	0.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does FOS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

FOS PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for FOS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	21.6x
SOU Sourcesense	24.7x	n/a	€35.2m
RETI Reti	26x	n/a	€28.1m
NRST Neurosoft Software Production	17.7x	n/a	€15.9m
SOF Softlab	17.8x	n/a	€32.3m
FOS Fos	19.1x	22.7%	€20.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: FOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the peer average (21.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FOS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European IT Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: FOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the Italian IT industry average (24.5x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FOS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FOS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	19.1x
Fair PE Ratio	25.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: FOS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (25.2x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FOS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: FOS (€3.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€6.43)

Significantly Below Fair Value: FOS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Fos forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

22.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: FOS's forecast earnings growth (22.7% per year) is above the savings rate (1.7%).

Earnings vs Market: FOS's earnings (22.7% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (8.3% per year).

High Growth Earnings: FOS's earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: FOS's revenue (9.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the Italian market (-0.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: FOS's revenue (9.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: FOS's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (16.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Fos performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

2/6

Past Performance Score 2/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

28.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FOS has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: FOS's current net profit margins (6.1%) are lower than last year (7.1%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FOS's earnings have grown significantly by 28.3% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: FOS's earnings growth over the past year (13.3%) is below its 5-year average (28.3% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: FOS earnings growth over the past year (13.3%) underperformed the IT industry 26.9%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: FOS's Return on Equity (11.3%) is considered low.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Fos's financial position?

Financial Health Score

5/6

Financial Health Score 5/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FOS's short term assets (€18.0M) exceed its short term liabilities (€6.8M).

Long Term Liabilities: FOS's short term assets (€18.0M) exceed its long term liabilities (€8.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FOS has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: Insufficient data to determine if FOS's debt to equity ratio has reduced over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: FOS's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (31%).

Interest Coverage: FOS's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (11.4x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Fos's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOS's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FOS's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOS's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FOS's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as FOS has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Gian Pedrelli (55 yo)

no data

Tenure

Mr. Gian Matteo Pedrelli is currently employed at FOS Srl. Mr. Pedrelli serves as the Chief Executive Officer and Deputy Chairman of the Board at Fos S.p.A.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/16 00:00
Earnings	2021/12/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31