Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of TrenDevice S.p.A. (BIT:TD)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, TrenDevice fair value estimate is €0.28
• Current share price of €0.27 suggests TrenDevice is potentially trading close to its fair value
• The average premium for TrenDevice's competitorsis currently 70%

How far off is TrenDevice S.p.A. (BIT:TD) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

See our latest analysis for TrenDevice

Is TrenDevice Fairly Valued?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€200.0k	€312.6k	€438.0k	€563.8k	€680.9k	€784.4k	€873.1k	€948.0k	€1.01m	€1.07m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x1	Est @ 56.32%	Est @ 40.09%	Est @ 28.73%	Est @ 20.77%	Est @ 15.20%	Est @ 11.30%	Est @ 8.58%	Est @ 6.67%	Est @ 5.33%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 17%	€0.2	€0.2	€0.3	€0.3	€0.3	€0.3	€0.3	€0.3	€0.3	€0.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €2.7m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.2%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 17%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €1.1m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (17%– 2.2%) = €7.6m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €7.6m÷ ( 1 + 17%)¹⁰= €1.6m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €4.3m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of €0.3, the company appears about fair value at a 4.9% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at TrenDevice as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 17%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.726. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for TrenDevice

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For TrenDevice, we've put together three pertinent elements you should explore:

1. Risks: Be aware that TrenDevice is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 3 of those shouldn't be ignored...
2. Future Earnings: How does TD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Italian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.