Moderna Valuation
Is 1MRNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of 1MRNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 1MRNA's fair value for valuation analysis.
Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 1MRNA's fair value for valuation analysis.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1MRNA?
Key metric: As 1MRNA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 1MRNA's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 3.2x |
| Sales | US$5.08b |
| Market Cap | US$16.18b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -3.5x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does 1MRNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 23.2x | ||
REC Recordati Industria Chimica e Farmaceutica | 4.7x | 7.0% | €10.6b |
UBM Ulisse Biomed | 42.6x | 46.1% | €17.9m |
603392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise | 36.6x | 60.9% | CN¥91.7b |
BNTX BioNTech | 9x | 3.4% | US$28.4b |
1MRNA Moderna | 3.2x | 6.7% | €16.2b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (23.2x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does 1MRNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?
| 38 Companies | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (7.9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 1MRNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 3.2x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.9x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.9x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €40.78 | €72.89 +78.8% | 52.5% | €202.35 | €29.59 | n/a | 22 |
| Nov ’25 | €50.67 | €84.67 +67.1% | 47.4% | €219.63 | €42.45 | n/a | 20 |
| Oct ’25 | €58.05 | €90.33 +55.6% | 42.8% | €213.20 | €41.21 | n/a | 19 |
| Sep ’25 | €69.85 | €113.11 +61.9% | 46.0% | €278.91 | €52.18 | n/a | 21 |
| Aug ’25 | €89.67 | €129.10 +44.0% | 41.4% | €287.28 | €51.90 | n/a | 22 |
| Jul ’25 | €110.06 | €136.40 +23.9% | 39.2% | €289.91 | €57.98 | n/a | 22 |
| Jun ’25 | €135.50 | €130.43 -3.7% | 40.3% | €285.76 | €57.15 | n/a | 22 |
| May ’25 | €106.30 | €124.72 +17.3% | 43.7% | €287.90 | €54.79 | n/a | 22 |
| Apr ’25 | €99.02 | €124.32 +25.6% | 42.8% | €287.37 | €54.69 | n/a | 23 |
| Mar ’25 | €88.42 | €123.06 +39.2% | 42.4% | €286.07 | €55.37 | n/a | 24 |
| Feb ’25 | €89.83 | €123.30 +37.3% | 45.8% | €285.57 | €55.27 | n/a | 22 |
| Jan ’25 | €89.31 | €124.61 +39.5% | 46.7% | €274.80 | €47.63 | n/a | 22 |
| Dec ’24 | €72.58 | €128.51 +77.1% | 44.9% | €275.85 | €47.81 | n/a | 22 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | €161.59 0% | 45.0% | €405.02 | €60.28 | €50.67 | 21 |
| Oct ’24 | €96.77 | €171.39 +77.1% | 42.5% | €404.07 | €62.02 | €58.05 | 20 |
| Sep ’24 | €104.26 | €168.86 +62.0% | 42.4% | €397.88 | €62.92 | €69.85 | 20 |
| Aug ’24 | €104.48 | €180.67 +72.9% | 38.9% | €388.72 | €74.13 | €89.67 | 19 |
| Jul ’24 | €111.70 | €196.04 +75.5% | 34.7% | €394.31 | €75.19 | €110.06 | 17 |
| Jun ’24 | €118.86 | €197.59 +66.2% | 34.4% | €400.85 | €86.69 | €135.50 | 18 |
| May ’24 | €119.20 | €199.01 +67.0% | 33.1% | €390.96 | €84.56 | €106.30 | 17 |
| Apr ’24 | €140.14 | €206.85 +47.6% | 39.0% | €471.59 | €86.68 | €99.02 | 17 |
| Mar ’24 | €127.16 | €207.06 +62.8% | 39.5% | €474.58 | €87.22 | €88.42 | 17 |
| Feb ’24 | €154.38 | €210.92 +36.6% | 38.7% | €465.67 | €102.15 | €89.83 | 16 |
| Jan ’24 | €164.70 | €209.96 +27.5% | 41.2% | €476.55 | €96.06 | €89.31 | 16 |
| Dec ’23 | €173.94 | €205.02 +17.9% | 43.4% | €491.07 | €98.02 | €72.58 | 16 |
| Nov ’23 | €156.56 | €210.68 +34.6% | 45.1% | €512.53 | €102.30 | n/a | 16 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.