Moderna, Inc.

BIT:1MRNA Stock Report

Market Cap: €15.7b

Moderna Valuation

Is 1MRNA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of 1MRNA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: Insufficient data to calculate 1MRNA's future cash flow value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: Insufficient data to calculate 1MRNA's future cash flow value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1MRNA?

Key metric: As 1MRNA is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 1MRNA. This is calculated by dividing 1MRNA's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 1MRNA's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio8.4x
SalesUS$2.23b
Market CapUS$18.75b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 1MRNA's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 1MRNA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.2x
PHIL Philogen
10.2x-45.40%€865.7m
BNTX BioNTech
7.9x0.85%US$29.6b
REC Recordati Industria Chimica e Farmaceutica
3.7x6.90%€9.5b
603392 Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise
30.8x26.77%CN¥56.8b
1MRNA Moderna
8.4x22.94%€18.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 1MRNA is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (13.4x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 1MRNA's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Biotechs Industry?

53 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1MRNA 8.4xIndustry Avg. 7.9xNo. of Companies53PS01224364860+
53 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 1MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (7.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1MRNA's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1MRNA PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio8.4x
Fair PS Ratio2.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 1MRNA is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1MRNA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€40.78
€31.48
-22.80%
66.12%€112.73€14.20n/a20
Jan ’27€26.24
€31.39
+19.62%
68.96%€115.30€14.52n/a20
Dec ’26€20.96
€32.05
+52.93%
69.65%€116.29€14.64n/a19
Nov ’26€23.53
€34.96
+48.61%
84.91%€154.42€10.41n/a20
Oct ’26€24.07
€37.95
+57.66%
87.03%€169.80€12.86n/a20
Sep ’26€20.75
€38.90
+87.47%
86.64%€169.47€12.84n/a20
Aug ’26€23.61
€39.44
+67.07%
83.61%€170.99€17.27n/a21
Jul ’26€24.29
€40.37
+66.19%
80.06%€167.94€16.96n/a22
Jun ’26€23.07
€42.01
+82.14%
78.06%€174.40€17.62n/a23
May ’26€24.45
€42.44
+73.62%
75.62%€175.37€17.71n/a23
Apr ’26€26.43
€49.39
+86.89%
71.33%€195.95€23.11n/a23
Mar ’26€29.60
€54.00
+82.46%
69.21%€204.41€24.11n/a22
Feb ’26€39.44
€60.50
+53.43%
62.51%€203.73€25.95n/a22
Jan ’26€37.73
€70.48
+86.80%
54.74%€201.40€29.45€26.2422
Dec ’25€41.34
€72.40
+75.16%
52.44%€200.87€29.37€20.9622
Nov ’25€50.67
€84.67
+67.09%
47.38%€219.63€42.45€23.5320
Oct ’25€58.05
€90.57
+56.01%
42.80%€213.75€41.31€24.0719
Sep ’25€69.85
€112.33
+60.81%
45.98%€276.99€51.82€20.7521
Aug ’25€89.67
€129.10
+43.97%
41.41%€287.28€51.90€23.6122
Jul ’25€110.06
€136.40
+23.94%
39.17%€289.91€57.98€24.2922
Jun ’25€135.50
€130.43
-3.74%
40.27%€285.76€57.15€23.0722
May ’25€106.30
€124.72
+17.33%
43.67%€287.90€54.79€24.4522
Apr ’25€99.02
€124.32
+25.55%
42.78%€287.37€54.69€26.4323
Mar ’25€88.42
€123.06
+39.17%
42.41%€286.07€55.37€29.6024
Feb ’25€89.83
€123.30
+37.26%
45.83%€285.57€55.27€39.4422
Jan ’25€89.31
€124.61
+39.52%
46.75%€274.80€47.63€37.7322
€32.03
Fair Value
27.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/27 14:38
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/27 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Moderna, Inc. is covered by 47 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
null nullArgus Research Company
Huidong WangBarclays
Harry GillisBerenberg