Spotify Technology Valuation
Is 1SPOT undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Future Cash Flow Value
Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value
What is the Fair Price of 1SPOT when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
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Below Future Cash Flow Value: 1SPOT (€418.6) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€606.24)
Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 1SPOT is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1SPOT?
Key metric: As 1SPOT is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is 1SPOT's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 39x |
| Earnings | €2.21b |
| Market Cap | €84.59b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 4.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 34.9x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does 1SPOT's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 41.1x | ||
WBD Warner Bros. Discovery | 93.7x | 18.41% | US$68.1b |
DIS Walt Disney | 14x | 3.38% | US$170.7b |
UMG Universal Music Group | 20.2x | 7.73% | €30.5b |
NFLX Netflix | 36.7x | 15.75% | US$406.0b |
1SPOT Spotify Technology | 39x | 16.30% | €97.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1SPOT is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39x) compared to the peer average (41.1x).
Historical Price to Earnings Ratio
Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.
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Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does 1SPOT's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Entertainment Industry?
| 3 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39x) compared to the European Entertainment industry average (12.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is 1SPOT's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 39x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 26.1x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1SPOT is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €418.60 | €550.62 +31.54% | 11.83% | €691.84 | €353.98 | n/a | 40 |
| Mar ’27 | €426.70 | €550.03 +28.90% | 11.74% | €672.24 | €353.98 | n/a | 39 |
| Feb ’27 | €422.70 | €618.19 +46.25% | 12.32% | €768.06 | €426.35 | n/a | 39 |
| Jan ’27 | €492.95 | €642.15 +30.27% | 12.02% | €768.06 | €426.35 | n/a | 39 |
| Dec ’26 | €503.00 | €648.23 +28.87% | 12.24% | €783.09 | €426.35 | n/a | 37 |
| Nov ’26 | €576.90 | €638.67 +10.71% | 13.98% | €780.57 | €409.10 | n/a | 38 |
| Oct ’26 | €608.60 | €638.37 +4.89% | 14.34% | €780.57 | €409.10 | n/a | 37 |
| Sep ’26 | €583.60 | €635.16 +8.83% | 14.12% | €780.57 | €416.30 | n/a | 36 |
| Aug ’26 | €550.40 | €636.07 +15.57% | 13.24% | €780.57 | €416.30 | n/a | 37 |
| Jul ’26 | €617.60 | €611.96 -0.91% | 14.96% | €780.93 | €400.88 | n/a | 37 |
| Jun ’26 | €573.70 | €584.48 +1.88% | 11.39% | €701.76 | €400.88 | n/a | 38 |
| May ’26 | €525.60 | €581.92 +10.72% | 11.91% | €701.76 | €400.88 | n/a | 38 |
| Apr ’26 | €506.10 | €619.51 +22.41% | 13.73% | €703.57 | €411.34 | €418.60 | 36 |
| Mar ’26 | €568.20 | €612.42 +7.78% | 17.43% | €703.57 | €224.05 | €426.70 | 34 |
| Feb ’26 | €537.20 | €479.92 -10.66% | 17.13% | €625.37 | €224.05 | €422.70 | 34 |
| Jan ’26 | €432.40 | €459.10 +6.17% | 14.80% | €582.96 | €224.05 | €492.95 | 35 |
| Dec ’25 | €450.05 | €452.86 +0.63% | 14.33% | €582.96 | €224.05 | €503.00 | 34 |
| Nov ’25 | €355.65 | €369.90 +4.01% | 13.29% | €457.88 | €224.05 | €576.90 | 34 |
| Oct ’25 | €333.55 | €357.37 +7.14% | 13.48% | €457.88 | €224.05 | €608.60 | 35 |
| Sep ’25 | €305.85 | €357.73 +16.96% | 13.11% | €423.75 | €224.05 | €583.60 | 33 |
| Aug ’25 | €315.05 | €355.69 +12.90% | 13.10% | €423.75 | €225.67 | €550.40 | 33 |
| Jul ’25 | €291.55 | €322.15 +10.49% | 13.72% | €374.52 | €196.62 | €617.60 | 31 |
| Jun ’25 | €270.55 | €317.26 +17.26% | 14.27% | €373.84 | €196.62 | €573.70 | 32 |
| May ’25 | €268.70 | €311.72 +16.01% | 15.69% | €373.84 | €196.62 | €525.60 | 33 |
| Apr ’25 | €248.50 | €249.52 +0.41% | 14.16% | €307.07 | €151.87 | €506.10 | 33 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/03/31 21:23 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/03/31 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Spotify Technology S.A. is covered by 69 analysts. 36 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| William Noel Milner | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Samuel Lourensz | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |