The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Neodecortech S.p.A. (BIT:NDT) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Neodecortech Carry?
As you can see below, Neodecortech had €39.8m of debt at March 2022, down from €43.3m a year prior. However, it does have €8.51m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €31.3m.
How Strong Is Neodecortech's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Neodecortech had liabilities of €71.4m due within 12 months and liabilities of €26.1m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of €8.51m and €36.1m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling €52.9m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's €47.6m market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Neodecortech's net debt to EBITDA ratio of about 1.9 suggests only moderate use of debt. And its commanding EBIT of 1k times its interest expense, implies the debt load is as light as a peacock feather. Importantly, Neodecortech grew its EBIT by 38% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Neodecortech can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Looking at the most recent three years, Neodecortech recorded free cash flow of 40% of its EBIT, which is weaker than we'd expect. That weak cash conversion makes it more difficult to handle indebtedness.
Our View
Neodecortech's interest cover was a real positive on this analysis, as was its EBIT growth rate. But truth be told its level of total liabilities had us nibbling our nails. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Neodecortech's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Neodecortech is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BIT:NDT
Neodecortech
Engages in the production and marketing of decorative papers for industrial sectors in Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, the Middle East, the United States, and Africa.
Proven track record with moderate growth potential.