New Risk • May 20
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of Italian stocks, typically moving 9.4% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.4% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€7.85m market cap, or US$9.13m). Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2025 earnings released Full year 2025 results: Revenue: €36.5m (down 16% from FY 2024). Net loss: €3.09m (down €3.24m from profit in FY 2024). Revenue is forecast to grow 27% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 2.7% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. New Risk • Mar 18
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €8.59m (US$9.86m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.2x net interest cover). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (7.7% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€8.59m market cap, or US$9.86m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 23
Now 23% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.1% to €1.16. The fair value is estimated to be €1.51, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.6% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 89% in the next year. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Jan 07
Now 22% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 4.7% to €1.21. The fair value is estimated to be €1.55, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.6% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 89% in the next year. New Risk • Jan 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 6.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (0.2x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€14.7m market cap, or US$17.2m). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 03
Now 21% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 21% to €1.16. The fair value is estimated to be €1.47, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 5.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Revenue is forecast to decline by 0.6% in a year. Earnings are forecast to grow by 89% in the next year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 05
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €45.5m to €38.3m. Forecast loss of -€0.122, down from profit of €0.086 per share profit previously. Packaging industry in Italy expected to see average net income growth of 4.4% next year. Consensus price target down from €2.50 to €1.70. Share price fell 8.6% to €1.27 over the past week. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • May 28
Now 20% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 10% to €1.60. The fair value is estimated to be €1.33, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 10% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company has become profitable. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 17% per annum. Earnings are also forecast to grow by 70% per annum over the same time period. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 04
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 22% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from €48.0m to €45.5m. EPS estimate also fell from €0.11 per share to €0.086 per share. Net income forecast to grow 559% next year vs 16% growth forecast for Packaging industry in Italy. Consensus price target of €2.50 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 12% to €1.54 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 31
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €39.0m (down 8.5% from FY 2023). Net income: €150.3k (down 83% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 0.4% (down from 2.1% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 3.6% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Price Target Changed • Dec 20
Price target decreased by 40% to €2.50 Down from €4.15, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 52% above last closing price of €1.65. Stock is down 30% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.04 for next year compared to €0.078 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 75% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €46.5m to €43.5m. EPS estimate also fell from €0.16 per share to €0.04 per share. Net income forecast to grow 59% next year vs 12% growth forecast for Packaging industry in Italy. Consensus price target down from €4.15 to €4.00. Share price was steady at €1.98 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2024 earnings released: EPS: €0.019 (vs €0.05 in 1H 2023) First half 2024 results: EPS: €0.019 (down from €0.05 in 1H 2023). Revenue: €21.1m (down 1.2% from 1H 2023). Net income: €211.4k (down 63% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 1.0% (down from 2.7% in 1H 2023). Revenue is forecast to grow 21% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.2% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 105% per year but the company’s share price has fallen by 18% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 12
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €48.0m to €44.9m. EPS estimate also fell from €0.22 per share to €0.16 per share. Net income forecast to grow 110% next year vs 2.5% growth forecast for Packaging industry in Italy. Consensus price target of €4.60 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 3.2% to €2.10 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €37.8m (down 5.8% from FY 2022). Net income: €887.2k (up 105% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 2.3% (up from 1.1% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 24% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.8% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. New Risk • Feb 16
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.7x net interest cover). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.4% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€25.5m market cap, or US$27.5m). Reported Earnings • Oct 05
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.05 (vs €0.011 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €0.05 (up from €0.011 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €21.3m (up 8.4% from 1H 2022). Net income: €570.0k (up 370% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 2.7% (up from 0.6% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 25% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 2.4% growth forecast for the Packaging industry in Europe. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 84% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 2% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Jul 11
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 4.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.8x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (22% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.9% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€32.6m market cap, or US$35.8m). New Risk • Jul 07
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 22% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Interest payments are not well covered by earnings (2.8x net interest cover). High level of non-cash earnings (22% accrual ratio). Minor Risk Market cap is less than US$100m (€31.1m market cap, or US$34.1m). Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Director Paola Boromei was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €7.35 Up from €5.02, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 141% above last closing price of €3.05. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.17 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.073 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent There are 5 new directors who have joined the board in the last 3 years. Of these new board members, 1 was an independent director. The company's board is composed of: 2 independent directors. 5 non-independent directors. Independent Director Paola Boromei was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2020. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Lack of board continuity. Reported Earnings • Apr 03
Full year 2021 earnings released Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €27.1m (up 36% from FY 2020). Net loss: €836.5k (loss narrowed 12% from FY 2020). Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 37%, compared to a 14% growth forecast for the industry in Italy. Reported Earnings • Oct 03
First half 2021 earnings released The company reported a solid first half result with reduced losses, improved revenues and improved control over expenses. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €14.4m (up 56% from 1H 2020). Net loss: €184.5k (loss narrowed 69% from 1H 2020). Price Target Changed • Apr 29
Price target increased to €4.74 Up from €3.00, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 19% above last closing price of €4.00. Stock is up 53% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Apr 01
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and control over costs. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €19.9m (down 5.9% from FY 2019). Net loss: €946.0k (down 288% from profit in FY 2019). Announcement • Mar 09
Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) completed the acquisition of Operating Branch of Tieng Srl. Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) signed a binding agreement to acquire Operating Branch of Tieng Srl for €1.03 million on January 12, 2021. Giancarlo Boffi, will be the Chief Executive Officer of the new company. As of February 5, 2021, Grifal S.p.A. has completed 51% take in Operating Branch of Tieng Srl.
Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) completed the acquisition of Operating Branch of Tieng Srl on Monday 8, 2021. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 23
New 90-day high: €3.20 The company is up 32% from its price of €2.42 on 25 November 2020. The Italian market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Announcement • Feb 16
Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) signed a binding agreement to acquire Cornelli Brand Packaging Experience Srl from Cornelli Srl for €1.3 million. Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) signed a binding agreement to acquire Cornelli Brand Packaging Experience Srl from Cornelli Srl for €1.3 million on February 15, 2021. Grifal S.p.A. will pay €0.85 million in cash at closing and will issue 0.16 million shares as consideration. Guido Tisi, Francesca Ghezzi and Marilena Rota of Studio BNC, acted as legal advisor for the tax and labor law part. AmbroMobiliare acted as financial advisor, while the NCTM Law Firm in Milan acted as legal advisor. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 14
New 90-day high: €2.90 The company is up 32% from its price of €2.19 on 16 October 2020. The Italian market is up 17% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 12% over the same period. Announcement • Jan 13
Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) signed a binding agreement to acquire Operating Branch of Tieng Srl for €1.03 million. Grifal S.p.A. (BIT:GRAL) signed a binding agreement to acquire Operating Branch of Tieng Srl for €1.03 million on January 12, 2021. Giancarlo Boffi, will be the Chief Executive Officer of the new company. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 25
New 90-day high: €2.55 The company is up 2.0% from its price of €2.49 on 26 August 2020. The Italian market is up 6.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 10.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 27
New 90-day low: €2.07 The company is down 13% from its price of €2.37 on 29 July 2020. The Italian market is down 5.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Packaging industry, which is up 7.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Sep 27
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of €651.2k, with earnings decreasing by €1.43m from the prior year. Total revenue was €19.7m over the last 12 months, down 4.8% from the prior year.