CF Industries Holdings, Inc.

BIT:1CF Stock Report

Market Cap: €18.0b

CF Industries Holdings Valuation

Is 1CF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1CF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: 1CF (€118.1) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€170.06)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: 1CF is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1CF?

Key metric: As 1CF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 1CF. This is calculated by dividing 1CF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 1CF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsUS$2.10b
Market CapUS$20.90b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 1CF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 1CF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.1x
SOL SOL
29.4x9.75%€5.2b
BZU Buzzi
8x3.48%€7.0b
000792 Qinghai Salt Lake IndustryLtd
11.6x11.00%CN¥139.5b
2020 SABIC Agri-Nutrients
15.6x1.36%ر.س60.2b
1CF CF Industries Holdings
10x-16.32%€20.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 1CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (16.1x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 1CF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1CF 10.0xIndustry Avg. 17.9xNo. of Companies13PE01632486480+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 1CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (17.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1CF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1CF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio12x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 1CF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1CF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€118.10
€107.76
-8.75%
16.51%€168.38€84.31n/a18
Sep ’27€113.95
€107.32
-5.82%
16.12%€167.99€84.11n/a19
Aug ’27€108.85
€109.96
+1.02%
16.63%€171.82€87.79n/a19
Jul ’27€96.14
€110.00
+14.42%
11.56%€131.84€87.89n/a19
Jun ’27€99.30
€108.83
+9.59%
12.98%€129.02€80.85n/a19
May ’27€106.70
€103.04
-3.43%
16.18%€127.79€73.26n/a19
Apr ’27€108.14
€98.24
-9.16%
17.86%€130.89€74.17n/a19
Mar ’27€83.70
€81.79
-2.29%
10.70%€97.28€60.90n/a19
Feb ’27€78.86
€77.49
-1.74%
8.23%€92.75€65.77n/a19
Jan ’27€65.72
€78.26
+19.08%
7.82%€93.85€68.26n/a18
Dec ’26€69.27
€79.63
+14.96%
7.70%€94.75€68.91n/a18
Nov ’26€72.03
€80.46
+11.70%
8.78%€94.45€66.97n/a17
Oct ’26€76.89
€79.85
+3.85%
8.67%€93.80€66.51n/a17
Sep ’26€73.98
€80.58
+8.92%
9.22%€94.74€67.18€113.9518
Aug ’26€79.28
€81.56
+2.87%
9.70%€95.22€69.25€108.8518
Jul ’26€78.58
€75.57
-3.83%
9.58%€93.39€63.68€96.1419
Jun ’26€79.90
€76.73
-3.97%
7.86%€88.08€66.06€99.3020
May ’26€68.73
€75.87
+10.39%
10.66%€100.66€65.65€106.7021
Apr ’26n/a
€82.61
0%
10.79%€106.29€68.40€108.1422
Mar ’26n/a
€86.80
0%
12.02%€110.88€71.35€83.7021
Feb ’26n/a
€88.10
0%
12.49%€110.45€71.07€78.8621
Jan ’26n/a
€84.79
0%
11.26%€108.62€70.51€65.7221
Dec ’25n/a
€82.49
0%
9.49%€99.23€69.93€69.2720
Nov ’25n/a
€80.22
0%
10.17%€96.89€63.67€72.0320
Oct ’25n/a
€75.97
0%
8.85%€89.81€61.97€76.8920
Sep ’25n/a
€75.15
0%
9.51%€89.59€60.03€73.9820
€107.11
Fair Value
10.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/10 17:58
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/10 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is covered by 41 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harriet LiAccountability Research Corporation
null nullArgus Research Company
Benjamin TheurerBarclays