F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini S.p.A. Beat Revenue Forecasts By 5.6%: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

It's been a pretty great week for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini S.p.A. (BIT:FILA) shareholders, with its shares surging 16% to €8.98 in the week since its latest half-year results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of €0.46 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of €314m came in 5.6% ahead of analyst predictions. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini, is for revenues of €612.7m in 2020, which would reflect a noticeable 2.1% reduction in F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 43% to €0.33. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €657.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.53 in 2020. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their sales forecasts and making a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers.

What's most unexpected is that the consensus price target rose 10% to €11.68, strongly implying the downgrade to forecasts is not expected to be more than a temporary blip. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini analyst has a price target of €14.20 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €10.40. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 2.1% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 17% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 6.1% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that F.I.L.A. - Fabbrica Italiana Lapis ed Affini is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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