Announcement • Apr 14
BIFIRE S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2025 BIFIRE S.p.A., Annual General Meeting, Apr 29, 2025, at 09:00 W. Europe Standard Time. Location: via lavoratori dell autobianchi 1, desio mb Italy Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 17
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 18% After last week's 18% share price gain to €2.82, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the Building industry in Italy. Total loss to shareholders of 13% over the past year. New Risk • Mar 13
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 6.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.3% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (9.4% net profit margin). Market cap is less than US$100m (€47.5m market cap, or US$51.5m). Reported Earnings • Mar 13
Full year 2024 earnings released Full year 2024 results: Revenue: €35.0m (down 26% from FY 2023). Net income: €3.28m (down 58% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 9.4% (down from 16% in FY 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 14% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.9% growth forecast for the Building industry in Italy. Upcoming Dividend • Feb 03
Upcoming dividend of €0.029 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 10 February 2025. Payment date: 12 February 2025. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 4.2%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). Upcoming Dividend • Nov 04
Upcoming dividend of €0.029 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 11 November 2024. Payment date: 13 November 2024. Payout ratio is a comfortable 28% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.4%). Major Estimate Revision • Oct 16
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 consensus EPS estimate fell from €0.358 to €0.308. Revenue forecast reaffirmed at €45.0m. Net income forecast to shrink 16% next year vs 14% growth forecast for Building industry in Italy . Consensus price target up from €4.80 to €4.95. Share price was steady at €2.98 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Sep 30
First half 2024 earnings released First half 2024 results: Revenue: €19.8m (down 9.0% from 1H 2023). Net income: €2.47m (down 29% from 1H 2023). Profit margin: 13% (down from 16% in 1H 2023). The decrease in margin was driven by lower revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 5.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Building industry in Italy. Upcoming Dividend • Jul 29
Upcoming dividend of €0.029 per share Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 August 2024. Payment date: 07 August 2024. Trailing yield: 3.8%. Lower than top quartile of Italian dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.5%). New Risk • Apr 21
New major risk - Earnings quality The company has a high level of non-cash earnings. Accrual ratio: 22% This is considered a major risk. Non-cash earnings can arise from many different things. However, if a company consistently has a high level of non-cash earnings, it may be a sign that they are recognizing revenue from customers before the full value of the sales are received as cash or they are not depreciating the value of their assets appropriately. These are practices that inflate earnings, while not providing a similar increase to cash flows. Companies in some select industries naturally have a high level of non-cash earnings and it is not a major concern. However, in the worst case scenario it can be an early sign of performance manipulation by management. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (22% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (dividend per share is over 8x cash flows per share). Market cap is less than US$100m (€60.3m market cap, or US$64.3m). Price Target Changed • Apr 18
Price target increased by 12% to €4.80 Up from €4.30, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of €3.50. Stock is up 2.3% over the past year. New Risk • Mar 31
New minor risk - Dividend sustainability The company has a short dividend paying track record. Less than a year of continuous dividend payments. Dividend yield: 3.1% This is considered a minor risk. For dividend focussed investors, companies that have not established a long-term track record of consistently maintaining or growing dividends are less attractive than those companies that have a long track record. Those that have a long track record have proven their underlying business is stable enough to consistently maintain or grow the dividend and that the company considers maintaining the dividend to be one of its priorities. For dividend paying companies, any reduction in the dividend can significantly impact the share price. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 11% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Short dividend paying track record (less than a year of continuous dividend payments). Market cap is less than US$100m (€60.9m market cap, or US$65.7m). Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €47.4m (up 7.6% from FY 2022). Net income: €7.78m (up 46% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 16% (up from 12% in FY 2022). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue is forecast to grow 3.3% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the Building industry in Italy. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Dec 07
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 20% After last week's 20% share price gain to €3.22, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 29% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €2.06 per share. New Risk • Nov 09
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 5.1% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (27% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Less than 3 years of financial data is available. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (5.1% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€46.6m market cap, or US$49.9m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 08
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 17% After last week's 17% share price decline to €2.68, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the Building industry in Europe. Total returns to shareholders of 4.1% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €2.07 per share. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.20 (vs €0.18 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €0.20 (up from €0.18 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €21.8m (down 3.6% from 1H 2022). Net income: €3.49m (up 13% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 16% (up from 14% in 1H 2022). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses. Revenue is forecast to grow 6.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 11% growth forecast for the Building industry in Italy. Price Target Changed • Sep 28
Price target decreased by 8.5% to €4.30 Down from €4.70, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. New target price is 37% above last closing price of €3.14. Stock is up 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.29 for next year compared to €0.31 last year. New Risk • Jul 06
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of Italian stocks, typically moving 4.8% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk High level of non-cash earnings (43% accrual ratio). Minor Risks Less than 3 years of financial data is available. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (4.8% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€49.3m market cap, or US$53.5m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jul 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to €2.80, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the Building industry in Europe. Total loss to shareholders of 3.1% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €4.47 per share. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent Following the recent departure of a director, there is only 1 independent director on the board. The company's board is composed of: 1 independent director. 2 non-independent directors. Independent Director Domenico Zaccone was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2022. The company's minority of independent directors is a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model.