Avio S.p.A.'s (BIT:AVIO) Has Been On A Rise But Financial Prospects Look Weak: Is The Stock Overpriced?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
April 12, 2022
BIT:AVIO
Source: Shutterstock

Avio's (BIT:AVIO) stock is up by a considerable 11% over the past week. We, however wanted to have a closer look at its key financial indicators as the markets usually pay for long-term fundamentals, and in this case, they don't look very promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Avio's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

See our latest analysis for Avio

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Avio is:

2.9% = €9.1m ÷ €310m (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every €1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated €0.03 in profit.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Avio's Earnings Growth And 2.9% ROE

It is hard to argue that Avio's ROE is much good in and of itself. Even when compared to the industry average of 10%, the ROE figure is pretty disappointing. Thus, the low net income growth of 4.2% seen by Avio over the past five years could probably be the result of it having a lower ROE.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Avio's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 5.9% in the same period, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth
BIT:AVIO Past Earnings Growth April 12th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Avio is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Avio Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The high three-year median payout ratio of 52% (that is, the company retains only 48% of its income) over the past three years for Avio suggests that the company's earnings growth was lower as a result of paying out a majority of its earnings.

Moreover, Avio has been paying dividends for four years, which is a considerable amount of time, suggesting that management must have perceived that the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 49% of its profits over the next three years. However, Avio's ROE is predicted to rise to 4.6% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Conclusion

In total, we would have a hard think before deciding on any investment action concerning Avio. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at the current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings are expected to gain momentum. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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