Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.

BIT:ISP Stock Report

Market Cap: €97.7b

Intesa Sanpaolo Future Growth

Future criteria checks 1/6

Intesa Sanpaolo is forecast to grow earnings and revenue by 4.9% and 4.1% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to grow by 7% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 17% in 3 years.

Key information

4.9%

Earnings growth rate

6.96%

EPS growth rate

Banks earnings growth6.6%
Revenue growth rate4.1%
Future return on equity17.05%
Analyst coverage

Good

Last updated11 Jun 2026

Recent future growth updates

Recent updates

Narrative Update • Jun 10

ISP: 2026 Earnings Power Will Depend On Monte Dei Paschi Bid Execution

Analysts have nudged their average price target for Intesa Sanpaolo slightly higher, with recent Street research pointing to a move from about €6.73 to roughly €6.75 as firms fine tune assumptions on fair value, discount rates, growth and future price-to-earnings ratios. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Intesa Sanpaolo shows a mix of optimism and caution, with several firms adjusting price targets and ratings in different directions.
Narrative Update • May 26

ISP: 2026 Earnings Power Will Rely On Fees Insurance And Cost Discipline

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo higher to €6.73 from €6.61, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, profitability and future P/E in the wake of recent price target changes. These include JPMorgan lifting its target to €7.10, while Morgan Stanley trims its own to €6.80.
Narrative Update • May 03

ISP: 2026 Earnings Power Will Rely On Fees Insurance And Cost Discipline

The analyst fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo has inched higher to about €6.61 per share, a marginal move that reflects modest tweaks to assumptions on discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin, and future P/E after recent price target changes and rating upgrades across the Street. Analyst Commentary Bullish Takeaways Bullish analysts are comfortable lifting price targets into the €6.80 range or higher, which supports the view that recent earnings assumptions and capital return expectations can justify a P/E closer to peers.
Narrative Update • Apr 19

ISP: 2026 Fee And Insurance Income Will Support Earnings Power

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo slightly, with the implied price target easing by about €0.05 as updated assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E are incorporated into their models, while recent Street research shows a mix of target cuts and upgrades across major banks. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Intesa Sanpaolo shows both upward and downward adjustments to price targets, reflecting different views on how the current valuation lines up with execution and growth expectations.
Narrative Update • Apr 04

ISP: Fee And Insurance Strength Will Support Medium Term Earnings Upside

Analysts have nudged the fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo from €6.43 to €6.65, reflecting updated views on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E expectations after a series of recent price target raises and upgrades from major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Intesa Sanpaolo has centered on higher price targets and upgrades, which feed directly into the updated fair value estimate.
Narrative Update • Feb 02

ISP: Higher Earnings Multiple And Fair Value View Will Shape Medium Term Upside

Analysts have lifted their fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo to €6.43 from €6.33, citing updated price targets in the €6.80 to €6.90 range, slightly adjusted discount rates, refined revenue growth assumptions, and a modestly higher future P/E multiple. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has focused on higher price targets for Intesa Sanpaolo, with JPMorgan and other bullish analysts revisiting their assumptions on earnings power and valuation multiples.
Narrative Update • Jan 19

ISP: Higher Earnings Multiple Assumptions Will Support Earnings Visibility And Balanced Risk Profile

Analysts have nudged their fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo higher to €6.33 from €6.20, reflecting recent upward price target revisions to €6.80 and €6.90, as well as updated assumptions around discount rate, revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research has leaned more positive on Intesa Sanpaolo, with higher price targets feeding into the updated fair value estimate of €6.33.
Narrative Update • Jan 04

ISP: Incremental Actions Will Sustain Earnings Visibility And Balanced Risk Reward Profile

Analysts have nudged their average price target on Intesa Sanpaolo slightly higher to approximately EUR 6.20, reflecting broadly unchanged assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins, and discount rates, and a view that incremental, controllable actions can sustain the bank's leading profitability without the need for revolutionary change. Analyst Commentary Analyst sentiment on Intesa Sanpaolo remains broadly constructive, with most commentators highlighting the bank's solid earnings profile and scope for steady value creation, even as some trim valuation assumptions at the margin.
Narrative Update • Dec 14

ISP: Incremental Actions And Earnings Visibility Will Sustain Balanced Risk And Reward

Analysts have nudged their price target on Intesa Sanpaolo slightly higher, to about EUR 6.18 from EUR 6.17. This reflects a modestly lower discount rate and stable growth and profitability expectations, supported by recent research that highlights room for incremental improvements without requiring major strategic shifts.
Narrative Update • Nov 28

ISP: Incremental Improvements And Efficiency Will Sustain Balanced Risk And Opportunity Ahead

Intesa Sanpaolo's analyst price target has increased slightly from €6.16 to €6.17, as analysts cite steady profitability drivers and manageable growth expectations which underpin their outlook. Analyst Commentary Recent research coverage of Intesa Sanpaolo highlights a blend of optimism and caution among analysts covering the stock.
Narrative Update • Nov 14

ISP: Incremental Improvements And Efficiency Will Help Maintain Stable Earnings Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Intesa Sanpaolo from €6.08 to €6.16, citing improved revenue growth forecasts and sustained profit margins as key factors supporting a higher price target. Analyst Commentary Recent street research reflects a dynamic range of perspectives on Intesa Sanpaolo's prospects, with price targets and ratings moving in both directions based on evolving views of profitability, growth, and execution capability.
Narrative Update • Oct 30

ISP: Measured Upside Expected As Shareholder Returns And Momentum Weigh Against Limited Surprises

Intesa Sanpaolo's analyst fair value target has risen modestly from €5.95 to €6.08. This reflects analysts’ confidence in improved revenue growth expectations and sustained profitability drivers.
Narrative Update • Oct 16

Digital Transformation, ESG, And European Integration Will Drive Future Opportunity

Intesa Sanpaolo's analyst price target has been modestly increased from €5.88 to €5.95. This reflects analysts' expectations for improved profitability and stronger revenue growth in the near term.
Narrative Update • Sep 04

Digital Transformation, ESG, And European Integration Will Drive Future Opportunity

Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Intesa Sanpaolo driven by resilient profitability, strong capital management, and sustained operating performance, resulting in no change to the consensus price target, which remains at €5.88. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts attribute the price target increases to improved earnings visibility and resilient profitability.
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New Narrative • Nov 07

Technological Investment To Boost Bank Efficiency But Macro Uncertainties Loom Large

Intesa Sanpaolo's investment in technology and workforce restructuring aims to enhance efficiency, net margins, and overall earnings.

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

BIT:ISP - Analysts future estimates and past financials data (EUR Millions)
DateRevenueEarningsFree Cash FlowCash from OpAvg. No. Analysts
12/31/202829,90111,046N/AN/A16
12/31/202729,02810,480N/AN/A16
12/31/202628,3369,901N/AN/A15
3/31/202625,7069,467N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202525,3189,3216,5858,235N/A
9/30/202525,3209,087N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202525,5199,116-5,523-3,809N/A
3/31/202525,4318,980N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202425,3768,666-41,852-40,187N/A
9/30/202424,9738,769N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202424,7048,268-19,600-18,112N/A
3/31/202423,7718,069N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202323,1577,724-18,920-17,338N/A
9/30/202322,2957,198N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202320,5666,25567,46069,443N/A
3/31/202319,2135,292N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202218,0044,379100,431102,276N/A
9/30/202217,3033,482N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202217,4173,5086,2488,501N/A
3/31/202217,3423,712N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202118,1174,1856,9318,805N/A
9/30/202117,826907N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202117,0713,7343,9915,426N/A
3/31/202115,6542,527N/AN/AN/A
12/31/202014,3142,141-3,160-1,729N/A
9/30/202014,8906,094N/AN/AN/A
6/30/202014,9763,312-810355N/A
3/31/202016,0304,212N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201915,8274,118N/A4,433N/A
9/30/201915,4844,254N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201915,2104,059N/A4,185N/A
3/31/201914,9563,787N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201815,4404,002N/A5,623N/A
9/30/201815,2644,440N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201814,7634,257N/A3,900N/A
3/31/201814,6807,666N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201713,6557,316N/A2,086N/A
9/30/201713,3455,798N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201713,3215,761N/A-20,445N/A
3/31/201713,1362,232N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201613,3042,124N/A-36,985N/A
9/30/201613,4262,212N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201613,3852,306N/A-26,278N/A
3/31/201613,6632,408N/AN/AN/A
12/31/201514,2412,679N/A-20,009N/A
9/30/201514,1652,729N/AN/AN/A
6/30/201513,8862,505N/A-8,580N/A

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: ISP's forecast earnings growth (4.9% per year) is above the savings rate (3.3%).

Earnings vs Market: ISP's earnings (4.9% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the Italian market (11.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: ISP's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: ISP's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the Italian market (5.8% per year).

High Growth Revenue: ISP's revenue (4.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: ISP's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17%).

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/11 10:38
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/11 00:00
Earnings2026/03/31
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

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Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is covered by 35 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Irene RossettoBanca Akros S.p.A. (ESN)
Javier Esteban LarioBanco de Sabadell. S.A.
Juan Lopez CoboBanco Santander