KeyCorp

BIT:1KEY Stock Report

Market Cap: €15.2b

KeyCorp Valuation

Is 1KEY undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 1KEY when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€23.59
Fair Value
41.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 1KEY (€13.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€23.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 1KEY is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 1KEY?

Key metric: As 1KEY is an unprofitable bank we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for 1KEY. This is calculated by dividing 1KEY's market cap by their current book value.
What is 1KEY's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio1x
BookUS$16.50b
Market CapUS$17.06b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does 1KEY's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for 1KEY vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.9x
MB Mediobanca Banca di Credito Finanziario
1.5x3.4%€16.6b
BAMI Banco BPM
1x-0.006%€15.1b
BMPS Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
0.8x-13.7%€9.8b
FBK FinecoBank Banca Fineco
4.4x1.3%€11.1b
1KEY KeyCorp
1x59.6%€17.1b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: 1KEY is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does 1KEY's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
1KEY 1.0xIndustry Avg. 0.9xNo. of Companies31PB00.61.21.82.43+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: 1KEY is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (1x) compared to the European Banks industry average (0.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 1KEY's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

1KEY PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio1x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate 1KEY's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 1KEY forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.75
€16.68
+21.2%
30.1%€38.01€13.70n/a20
May ’26€12.94
€16.58
+28.1%
30.1%€37.79€13.62n/a20
Apr ’26n/a
€18.68
0%
25.8%€39.86€16.68n/a21
Mar ’26n/a
€19.94
0%
24.3%€40.89€17.12n/a21
Feb ’26n/a
€20.17
0%
24.7%€41.22€17.25n/a20
Jan ’26n/a
€20.61
0%
26.8%€41.49€16.40n/a17
Dec ’25n/a
€19.91
0%
27.7%€40.97€16.20n/a17
Nov ’25n/a
€18.61
0%
28.7%€39.58€15.19n/a17
Oct ’25n/a
€17.54
0%
30.5%€38.51€14.33n/a17
Sep ’25n/a
€17.22
0%
30.5%€38.42€14.30n/a18
Aug ’25n/a
€17.27
0%
30.2%€39.71€14.78n/a20
Jul ’25n/a
€16.52
0%
32.9%€40.05€11.56n/a21
Jun ’25n/a
€16.72
0%
32.2%€39.94€11.53n/a21
May ’25n/a
€16.91
0%
32.2%€40.36€11.65€12.9421
Apr ’25n/a
€16.42
0%
33.4%€40.03€11.55n/a21
Mar ’25n/a
€16.17
0%
34.0%€39.92€11.52n/a21
Feb ’25n/a
€15.83
0%
35.2%€39.61€11.05n/a21
Jan ’25n/a
€14.19
0%
41.7%€38.85€9.04n/a21
Dec ’24n/a
€13.56
0%
46.2%€40.10€9.33n/a21
Nov ’24n/a
€13.63
0%
46.7%€40.63€9.45n/a21
Oct ’24n/a
€13.92
0%
44.4%€40.71€9.47n/a22
Sep ’24n/a
€13.46
0%
44.3%€39.16€9.11n/a22
Aug ’24n/a
€13.24
0%
45.8%€38.91€9.05n/a22
Jul ’24n/a
€13.45
0%
47.0%€39.56€9.20n/a22
Jun ’24n/a
€14.56
0%
41.5%€39.76€10.17n/a22
May ’24n/a
€14.76
0%
39.0%€38.94€9.96n/a22
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 20 Analysts
€16.75
Fair Value
17.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
20
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/05/09 06:36
End of Day Share Price 2025/05/09 00:00
Earnings2025/03/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

KeyCorp is covered by 54 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Stephen BiggarArgus Research Company
David GeorgeBaird
Jason GoldbergBarclays