Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Marel hf fair value estimate is Kr467
- Marel hf's Kr421 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
- Analyst price target for MAREL is €598, which is 28% above our fair value estimate
How far off is Marel hf. (ICE:MAREL) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
See our latest analysis for Marel hf
Is Marel hf Fairly Valued?
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | |
Levered FCF (€, Millions) | €136.1m | €176.4m | €197.3m | €236.7m | €257.1m | €274.2m | €290.6m | €306.7m | €322.7m | €338.7m |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x2 | Analyst x4 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 6.66% | Est @ 5.99% | Est @ 5.53% | Est @ 5.20% | Est @ 4.97% |
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 13% | €120 | €137 | €135 | €143 | €137 | €129 | €121 | €112 | €104 | €96.3 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.2b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 4.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €339m× (1 + 4.4%) ÷ (13%– 4.4%) = €3.9b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= €3.9b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= €1.1b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €2.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of Kr421, the company appears about fair value at a 9.8% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
Important Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Marel hf as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.210. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Marel hf
- Debt is well covered by earnings.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Machinery market.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Icelandic market.
- Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
- Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
- Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For Marel hf, there are three further factors you should further research:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Marel hf (2 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does MAREL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ICSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About ICSE:MAREL
Marel hf
Develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells solutions, software, and services to food processing industries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, Asia, and Oceania.
Reasonable growth potential and slightly overvalued.