Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies Hampidjan Hf. (ICE:HAMP) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Hampidjan Hf Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Hampidjan Hf had €83.3m in debt in December 2020; about the same as the year before. On the flip side, it has €21.4m in cash leading to net debt of about €61.9m.
How Strong Is Hampidjan Hf's Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Hampidjan Hf had liabilities of €39.8m due within 12 months and liabilities of €77.9m due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had €21.4m in cash and €21.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total €74.7m more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Hampidjan Hf has a market capitalization of €339.5m, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
Hampidjan Hf's net debt of 2.3 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 8.2 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. If Hampidjan Hf can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 15% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Hampidjan Hf will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Hampidjan Hf reported free cash flow worth 16% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. That limp level of cash conversion undermines its ability to manage and pay down debt.
Our View
Hampidjan Hf's EBIT growth rate was a real positive on this analysis, as was its interest cover. Having said that, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow somewhat sensitizes us to potential future risks to the balance sheet. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Hampidjan Hf's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Hampidjan Hf (of which 1 is a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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About ICSE:HAMP
Hampiðjan hf
Produces and sells fishing nets, ropes, and fishing long lines for the fishing fleet in Iceland.
Mediocre balance sheet very low.