Earnings Update: Gujarat State Petronet Limited (NSE:GSPL) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Gujarat State Petronet Limited (NSE:GSPL) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 3.4% to hit ₹181b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at ₹29.41, some 2.6% above whatthe analysts had expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Gujarat State Petronet

After the latest results, the consensus from Gujarat State Petronet's 15 analysts is for revenues of ₹14.1b in 2025, which would reflect a stressful 92% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dive 58% to ₹12.37 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of ₹185.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹22.20 in 2025. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of ₹343, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Gujarat State Petronet's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Gujarat State Petronet analyst has a price target of ₹440 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at ₹275. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 92% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue decline 5.3% annually for the foreseeable future. So it's pretty clear that Gujarat State Petronet's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Gujarat State Petronet. Unfortunately they also cut their revenue estimates for next year. Forecasts imply the business' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. That said, earnings per share are more important for creating value for shareholders. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Gujarat State Petronet going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Gujarat State Petronet is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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