Transport Corporation of India Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of TCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TCI (₹1095.7) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (₹437.94)

Is TCI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TCI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TCI (₹1095.7) is trading above our estimate of fair value (₹437.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TCI is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TCI?

Key metric: As TCI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TCI. This is calculated by dividing TCI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TCI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	22.1x
Earnings	₹3.79b
Market Cap	₹81.29b

TCI key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	18.3x
PEG Ratio	1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TCI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TCI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	56.5x
GATEWAY Gateway Distriparks	18.1x	13.2%	₹41.4b
526612 Blue Dart Express	63x	23.4%	₹178.0b
ALLCARGO Allcargo Logistics	117.1x	54.8%	₹51.6b
TCIEXP TCI Express	27.9x	15.4%	₹31.8b
TCI Transport Corporation of India	22.1x	14.5%	₹81.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the peer average (56.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TCI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the IN Logistics Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
511185 Rajvi Logitrade	1.4x	n/a	US$135.03k

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the Indian Logistics industry average (26.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TCI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TCI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	22.1x
Fair PE Ratio	28.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TCI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TCI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	₹1,095.70	₹1,232.78 +12.5%	9.9%	₹1,400.00	₹1,026.00	n/a	9
Nov ’25	₹1,083.00	₹1,232.78 +13.8%	9.9%	₹1,400.00	₹1,026.00	n/a	9
Oct ’25	₹1,083.95	₹1,176.67 +8.6%	9.6%	₹1,400.00	₹985.00	n/a	9
Sep ’25	₹1,085.90	₹1,168.80 +7.6%	7.9%	₹1,341.00	₹985.00	n/a	10
Aug ’25	₹1,021.60	₹1,160.00 +13.5%	8.2%	₹1,341.00	₹985.00	n/a	10
Jul ’25	₹923.75	₹1,093.33 +18.4%	10.5%	₹1,341.00	₹940.00	n/a	9
Jun ’25	₹837.20	₹1,093.33 +30.6%	10.5%	₹1,341.00	₹940.00	n/a	9
May ’25	₹877.30	₹1,054.22 +20.2%	10.2%	₹1,341.00	₹977.00	n/a	9
Apr ’25	₹820.85	₹1,068.00 +30.1%	10.4%	₹1,341.00	₹977.00	n/a	9
Mar ’25	₹824.40	₹1,071.11 +29.9%	10.2%	₹1,341.00	₹977.00	n/a	9
Feb ’25	₹972.90	₹953.70 -2.0%	5.8%	₹1,046.00	₹845.00	n/a	10
Jan ’25	₹831.80	₹945.89 +13.7%	6.1%	₹1,046.00	₹845.00	n/a	9
Dec ’24	₹858.15	₹945.89 +10.2%	6.1%	₹1,046.00	₹845.00	n/a	9
Nov ’24	₹795.95	₹929.56 +16.8%	6.5%	₹1,046.00	₹845.00	₹1,083.00	9
Oct ’24	₹783.75	₹889.78 +13.5%	3.9%	₹963.00	₹845.00	₹1,083.95	9
Sep ’24	₹812.10	₹889.78 +9.6%	3.9%	₹963.00	₹845.00	₹1,085.90	9
Aug ’24	₹760.15	₹860.25 +13.2%	7.0%	₹972.00	₹755.00	₹1,021.60	8
Jul ’24	₹716.40	₹847.43 +18.3%	8.7%	₹972.00	₹755.00	₹923.75	7
Jun ’24	₹704.30	₹842.75 +19.7%	8.3%	₹972.00	₹755.00	₹837.20	8
May ’24	₹633.85	₹828.75 +30.7%	7.0%	₹895.00	₹750.00	₹877.30	8
Apr ’24	₹626.85	₹828.75 +32.2%	7.0%	₹895.00	₹750.00	₹820.85	8
Mar ’24	₹646.20	₹839.44 +29.9%	6.2%	₹895.00	₹750.00	₹824.40	9
Feb ’24	₹618.25	₹842.50 +36.3%	5.0%	₹890.00	₹750.00	₹972.90	8
Jan ’24	₹619.00	₹842.50 +36.1%	3.6%	₹895.00	₹810.00	₹831.80	8
Dec ’23	₹674.20	₹842.50 +25.0%	3.6%	₹895.00	₹810.00	₹858.15	8
Nov ’23	₹694.65	₹857.86 +23.5%	2.8%	₹895.00	₹810.00	₹795.95	7

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.