Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BSE:532348 using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
BSE:532348 DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Subex's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Subex's share price is below the future cash flow value, but not at a substantial discount (< 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Subex's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Subex's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Unable to determine if Subex is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Subex's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
1/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Vinod Kumar Padmanabhan, B.Tech, has been Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Subex Ltd. since April 1, 2018. Mr. Padmanabhan served as the Chief Operating Officer at Subex Limited until April 1, 2018. Mr. Padmanabhan served as the Group President of Subex Limited since October 15, 1997. Mr. Kumar served as the President of Revenue Maximization Solutions of Subex Limited. Mr. Kumar served as a Vice President of Sales for EMEA & Asia Pacific of Subex Systems Ltd. Mr. Kumar has over 15 years of sales and marketing experience and handles the sales activities in the EMEA and Asia Pacific regions. He has been with Subex for more than 6 years, has been instrumental in ramping up Subex's operations in Africa, Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Mr. Padmanabhan joined Subex Limited in October 1997 and was involved in the development and implementation of it’s sales strategy. He spent five years as a marketing executive with Crompton Greaves and also worked at Ashok Leyland Limited. He has been Whole Time Director of Subex Limited since May 25, 2017. Mr. Kumar holds a bachelor of technology degree in electrical and electronics from CET, University of Kerala.
Vinod's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Vinod's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in India.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the Subex management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
MD, CEO & Director
Chief Financial Officer
Roddam Naga Shankar
Chief Operating Officer
Company Secretary & Compliance Officer
Chief Human Resources Officer
Head of Sales for EMEA & APAC
Head of IoT Security
VP & Global Head - Managed Services
Head of Global Support
Head of Product & Strategy
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure of the
board of directors in years:
The average tenure for the Subex board of directors is less than 3 years, this suggests a new board.
Board of Directors
MD, CEO & Director
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
More shares have been bought than sold by Subex insiders in the past 3 months.
Subex Limited provides operations and business support systems to communication service providers (CSPs) worldwide. It offers revenue management solutions, including ROC Revenue Assurance, a solution used for the needs of mobile and fixed line CSPs, analog data networks, digital data service providers, and triple/quad play enterprises; and ROC Fraud Management solution that detects fraudulent activities on the network, and ensures the system gets integrated with the ecosystem by utilizing readily deployable interfaces. The company also provides network management solutions, which comprise ROC Network Asset Management solution that offers a framework to audit network assets, evaluate inventory, and makes a business case for network upgradation, as well as a view of network assets and inventory to optimize opex and capex; and ROC Capacity Management, a solution, which gleans insights from network capacity trends, correlates capacity issues, simulates congestion points due to external events, and forecasts lead time for capacity exhaustion scenarios. In addition, it provides partner management solutions consisting of ROC Partner Management, a solution that facilitates in swift partner onboarding, partner self-care, revenue visibility, and communication between the company and its partners; ROC Route Optimization solution, which processes from dial code/destination operator rate imports to switch updates, and offers visibility and control of critical processes; and ROC Partner Settlement, a solution that provides a view of interconnect agreements in managing revenue and margins across the partner ecosystem. Further, Subex Limited provides Internet of Things security, a solution for security coverage from real-time discovery and monitoring to response and recovery. The company was formerly known as Subex Azure Limited and changed its name to Subex Limited in December 2007. Subex Limited was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Bengaluru, India.
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