Tata Steel Limited (NSE:TATASTEEL) Stock's On A Decline: Are Poor Fundamentals The Cause?

It is hard to get excited after looking at Tata Steel's (NSE:TATASTEEL) recent performance, when its stock has declined 7.8% over the past month. Given that stock prices are usually driven by a company’s fundamentals over the long term, which in this case look pretty weak, we decided to study the company's key financial indicators. In this article, we decided to focus on Tata Steel's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Tata Steel is:

7.0% = ₹67b ÷ ₹959b (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2025).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every ₹1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated ₹0.07 in profit.

View our latest analysis for Tata Steel

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

Tata Steel's Earnings Growth And 7.0% ROE

As you can see, Tata Steel's ROE looks pretty weak. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 9.7%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Therefore, it might not be wrong to say that the five year net income decline of 30% seen by Tata Steel was possibly a result of it having a lower ROE. However, there could also be other factors causing the earnings to decline. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

However, when we compared Tata Steel's growth with the industry we found that while the company's earnings have been shrinking, the industry has seen an earnings growth of 24% in the same period. This is quite worrisome.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for TATASTEEL? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is Tata Steel Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Tata Steel's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 50% (or a retention ratio of 50%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 2 risks we have identified for Tata Steel.

In addition, Tata Steel has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 28% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Tata Steel's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 16%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, Tata Steel's performance is quite a big let-down. The company has seen a lack of earnings growth as a result of retaining very little profits and whatever little it does retain, is being reinvested at a very low rate of return. That being so, the latest industry analyst forecasts show that the analysts are expecting to see a huge improvement in the company's earnings growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.